London: Gold is set for the biggest monthly gain in more than four years after a weaker dollar and low rates fueled its surge to a record.
Spot bullion is up 11 per cent in July as a gauge of the dollar slumped, prompting concerns its status as the world's reserve currency of choice is at risk, and US real yields fell to a record low. While the ferocity of gold's rally cooled as the week wore on, it's only about $10 shy of its all-time high and most market watchers predict there may be more gains ahead.
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The metal has surged almost 30 per cent in 2020, putting it on track for the biggest annual increase in more than a decade, as concern about the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic boosts its appeal as a haven. The Federal Reserve this week repeated a vow to use all its tools to support the US economy, with governments and central banks worldwide already unleashing vast amounts of stimulus to shore up growth.
More to climb
"There is still plenty of upside left in this rally," Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a note. "The backdrop remains highly conducive, with unwavering support from central banks likely to see monetary easing policies remain in place for the foreseeable future. This will keep bond yields low, raise inflation expectations and potentially keep the US dollar weak."
Spot gold rose as much as 0.9% to $1,974.30 an ounce and traded at $1,972.84 by 1:58 p.m. in Singapore. Prices touched a record $1,981.27 on Tuesday and are up for an eighth week, the longest run of gains since 2006.
Gold traders on Thursday declared their intent to deliver 3.3 million ounces against the August Comex contract, the largest daily delivery notice in bourse data going back to 1994.
With more stimulus on the horizon, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has said that gold is the currency of last resort amid an inflation threat to the dollar. The bank forecasts a rally to $2,300. Bank of America Corp. says prices could soar to as high as $3,000 an ounce, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees the rally losing steam later this year.