Power of labour strikes

Restive South African miners are likely to go on strike in coming months, but the relatively tight platinum market may have already priced in the effects of limited disruptions.

Gold prices could see a brief psychological lift if miners walk off the job, but South Africa's share of global output is waning and that market is less sensitive to supply issues.

A swirl of economic and political factors is increasing the prospects of strikes erupting, probably in August, in South Africa, the world's largest producer of gold and platinum.

"I'll be most surprised if there's no strike," said Peter Major at Cadiz Specialised Asset Management in Cape Town. "But if the strike goes more than a week, I'd also be a little bit surprised."

A work stoppage would hit platinum supplies since South Africa accounts for three quarters of the world's output of the precious metal, but analysts are divided over how much the price would react.

The world's two biggest producers are Anglo Platinum and Impala Platinum respectively, with total output in South Africa estimated at around 100,000 ounces of platinum per week.

"Based on platinum's recent out-performance of the other precious metals, we estimate that a production interruption of at least two weeks - or 200,000 ounces of platinum - is required to justify current platinum prices," John Reade, analyst at UBS Investment Bank, said in a research note.

"As this is towards the extreme end of the range of likely outcomes... we believe there is currently no value in buying platinum in anticipation of strike action." London-based Reade advised buying on any dips below $1,250 per ounce. Spot platinum touched a peak this year at $1,339 per ounce on May 7, having surged 18 per cent since the start of the year. On Tuesday it was quoted around $1,280.

Psychological impact

Analyst Stephen Briggs at Societe Generale in London noted that platinum lease rates have remained steady.

"The market is therefore sanguine about its prospects and it is doubtful that there is any imminent tightness. Only widespread and extended strike action would change the situation," he said in a research note.

Other analysts, however, argue that the psychological impact of a strike in dominant platinum producer South Africa might be enough to send prices spiking to a fresh all-time peak.

Last November, platinum prices lurched briefly to a fresh record of $1,395 per ounce on rumours of an exchange traded fund (ETF) in platinum that would tighten the market.

"Given the fact that South Africa is the main supplier, accounting for 75-80 per cent of global supply, clearly there would be a significant impact on prices," said Fidelis Madavo, mining analyst at South Africa's Public Investment Corporation. "We already saw a big run with that (rumoured) ETF story, but if there is a strike that will be a real story."

In gold, while South Africa is still the top producer, declining production has slashed its share of world output to around 12 per cent, lessening any impact of a strike. Also, with few industrial uses, gold acts more like a currency, reacting less to supply issues than foreign exchange rates and oil prices that could impact on inflation.

Two years ago when a five-day strike paralysed South African gold output, the spot gold price was little affected, but it hammered stocks of companies involved.

South Africa's three main gold producers, AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and Harmony Gold, negotiate jointly through industry body the Chamber of Mines. Unions have displayed a more aggressive stance this year as negotiations kick off, declaring several disputes, the first legal step towards going on strike.

Discontent among miners has been fuelled as they eye surging prices for gold and platinum at the same time South African inflation is gathering pace, especially in food and fuel costs that hit the lower-paid especially hard.

"What is important is to see what's happening with the cash flows of these companies, everyone is pumping money and clearly the unions are just saying 'Why can't we cash in on some of it'", said Madavo.

Sticking point

Analysts say a civil service strike in its fourth week that highlighted political divisions in the ruling alliance may also embolden miners to be tougher in biennial wage negotiations.

Unions announced a dispute on the first day of formal talks with gold firms last week when they declined to make an offer, saying they needed time to digest a total of 61 demands in addition to requests for wage hikes of 15-20 per cent.

The unions later withdrew their dispute, which forces mediation before a strike can be launched, and agreed to meet again on today when the chamber promised to unveil an offer.

Talks are likely to drag on through July, with strikes likely breaking out in August, the same month as the work stoppage in gold two years ago, analysts said.

Mining firms realise they will have to come up with wage hikes well above inflation, which is running at 6.3 per cent, but a sticking point is likely to be demands for steep increases in benefits such as medical insurance and pensions.

"The problem now is that, even if you were willing to agree to 10-12 per cent (wage hikes), the additional requirements make it impossible for you to settle. If you take it all together you're looking at something like a 35 per cent potential increase," said a Johannesburg analyst who declined to be named. "It's those issues that will force a strike."

The unions are likely to push harder with platinum companies, which have been enjoying much heftier profits than in gold, saddled with high costs at deep underground mines.

"The unions don't have to study too much to know the gold mines aren't making any profit. But the platinum guys, I really think they'll play harder with them. All those guys are making plus 50 per cent margins," Major said.