The contrasting fortunes reflect ongoing market rotation: investors rewarded AI, electric vehicles, and cloud computing while punishing exposure to luxury goods, batteries, and traditional conglomerates amid shifting economic signals.

Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires List, updated continuously from public market data, offers the most transparent daily snapshot of the world’s wealthiest individuals.

Prediction game

As for Musk hitting $1 trillion, no one can predict the exact date — it’s highly speculative and depends on volatile factors like Tesla's stock price, SpaceX/xAI valuations, market conditions, and potential IPOs or mergers.

In general, prediction markets and analysts point to a “strong chance” in late 2026 or 2027.

Musk needs roughly another $150–$151 billion to hit $1 trillion.

His wealth breaks down mainly as:

~12% stake in Tesla (publicly traded, so highly volatile).
~42% stake in SpaceX (valued at $800B via a December 2025 private tender offer).
Stakes in the merged X (formerly Twitter)/xAI entity (valued around $125B+ including debt in recent reports), plus smaller holdings like Neuralink and The Boring Company.

The current movements in wealth serve as a vivid reminder that even the richest fortunes remain tightly linked to stock-market volatility.

In a single trading session, more than $25 billion in combined paper wealth changed hands among just these ten names.

Kalshi (which resolves strictly on Forbes' real-time billionaires list) currently shows:

69% chance before 2027 (i.e., sometime in 2026).
86% chance before 2028.
90–91% chance before 2029.

Other sources align closely:

Polymarket has hovered around 66% for before end-2026.
Analysts and AI models (e.g., recent ChatGPT estimates) often cite 75%+ odds for 2026 or a more conservative 2027.

Drivers

Key drivers of Musk’s wealth could include Tesla's robotaxi/AI growth, SpaceX milestones (or IPO), or the X/xAI merger boosting private valuations.

There’s a realistic shot at late 2026 if growth continues at recent paces, but 2027 is the safer consensus bet.

It’s all paper wealth tied to illiquid/private assets and stock swings — no guarantees, and a market dip could delay it by years.

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