Trump touts US–India trade deal and oil shift: What is known, what isn’t so far

Dubai: US President Donald Trump says the United States and India have agreed to a trade deal that will immediately lower US tariffs on Indian goods and reshape energy ties between the two countries.

The announcement followed a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and was made unilaterally by Trump on his Truth Social platform. India’s government had not released a detailed statement on the agreement at the time of writing, leaving much of the deal defined by Trump’s claims.

Trump said the US will cut its “reciprocal” tariff on Indian goods to 18% from 25%, effective immediately.

The higher tariff had been imposed last year after trade talks stalled, driven in part by US frustration over India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. The move marked one of the sharpest trade escalations between the two countries in recent years.

A lower tariff eases pressure on Indian exporters selling into the US market and signals a thaw in relations after months of tension.

Modi later confirmed the tariff reduction in a post on X, calling it a boost for Indian exports. He did not comment on other elements outlined by Trump.

Trump claimed India had agreed to reduce both tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US goods, potentially to zero.

If implemented, that would represent a major change in India’s trade policy, which has long relied on protective barriers to shield domestic producers. Such a move could significantly expand access for US agricultural products, energy, and manufactured goods.

India has not publicly confirmed any commitment to eliminate trade barriers, leaving uncertainty over how far New Delhi is willing to go.

The most consequential claim in Trump’s announcement was energy-related.

He said Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil and instead increase purchases from the US and possibly Venezuela. Trump framed the shift as part of a broader strategy to pressure Moscow and help bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

India has emerged as one of Russia’s largest crude buyers since the war began, taking advantage of discounted prices. Those imports have helped India manage inflation and energy costs.

A sharp reduction in Russian oil purchases would raise costs for India, reshape global oil flows, and hand US energy producers a major new export opportunity. New Delhi has not confirmed any change to its oil-buying strategy.

Trump also said India committed to buying more than $500 billion worth of US energy, technology, agricultural products, coal, and other goods.

No timeframe or detailed breakdown was provided, and Indian officials have not endorsed the figure.

Large purchase pledges have appeared in past trade announcements but often lack clear enforcement mechanisms, making their real-world impact hard to measure.

The announcement came just a week after India finalised a major free trade agreement with the European Union, a deal Modi described as historic.

Some analysts had earlier flagged how progress with Europe could accelerate talks with Washington. Trump’s statement suggests momentum, but the absence of detailed confirmation from India keeps the picture incomplete.

For now, businesses and markets are left with a familiar gap: bold political declarations on one side, and unanswered questions about implementation on the other.

- With inputs from Agencies