Asian stocks higher, oil falls as Trump-Xi plan eases nerves: Markets wrap

Asian stocks rose on Friday as a plan for Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to meet eased nerves around a trade war.

Oil prices fell ahead of US inflation data.

An MSCI gauge of Asian shares was up around 0.5%, following a move higher on Wall Street on Thursday.

Technology stocks were among the best performers in the region, with an industry gauge in Hong Kong jumping around 1.4% in early trading.

The dollar was little changed.

The moves came after the White House confirmed President Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Oct. 30, a chance for cooler heads to prevail after a recent flare-up in trade tensions. 

Tech stocks in both countries have rallied recently, in part due to signs of state support.

US quantum-computing shares got a lift from reports that the Trump administration was mulling financial support for some firms, a move to counter China, while Beijing’s pledge to boost technological self-sufficiency fueled demand for tech stocks in early trading.

Investors are now turning their attention to the delayed inflation report from the US, which will be released on Friday.

The cross-asset moves overnight suggest investors are optimistic the inflation reading won’t be a major drag to global markets that have zoomed higher over the past month. 

“Valuations continue to be the best argument for bears, but the relentless buy-the-dip approach of investors has even the most pessimistic investors questioning their outlook,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.

Shares in Intel Corp helped lift the mood overnight, climbing in post-market trading after an upbeat revenue forecast. Treasuries had snapped a three-day rally overnight as yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year climbing five basis points to 4%. 

West Texas Intermediate jumped 5.6% to settle near $62 a barrel on Thursday, the most since the start of the Israel-Iran conflict on June 13. The latest US oil sanctions signaled a major policy turn from the Group-of-Seven price cap strategy that sought to limit Russia’s earnings without disrupting supply or driving up global prices.

“As with the trade war, the fallout from the oil sanctions is murky at best, although we expect that from the perspective of the market at least, the kneejerk spike in crude will represent the bulk of the attention devoted to this matter, as it were,” said Ian Lyngen, Vail Hartman and Delaney Choi at BMO Capital Markets.

Investors will likely look past any evidence of stubborn inflation in Friday’s consumer price index report, as money markets brace for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

The September CPI report was delayed due to the US government shutdown. Economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast the core CPI, which excludes food and fuel, to have climbed 0.3% for a third straight month as higher import duties continue to gradually filter through to consumers. The projected monthly gain will keep the annual core CPI at 3.1%.

Friday’s CPI is important in the sense that it’s one of the few economic data points that we will see given the government shutdown, according to Emily Bowersock Hill, founding partner of Bowersock Capital Partners.

“But since the Federal Reserve is likely more focused on the labor market, we don’t expect Friday’s CPI to weigh heavily on next week’s Fed decision,” she said. “We will likely see two more rate cuts this year, in October and December.”

Prospects for Fed easing, durable earnings growth and AI investment spending support the view that the equity bull market has further room to run, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management. But she also sounds a note of caution. 

“Any setbacks in US-China relations or potential concerns about the durability of the AI-driven rally could trigger bouts of volatility,” she said. 

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