SpaceX IPO: Can Elon Musk justify a $1.75 trillion valuation?

Dubai: When Elon Musk began positioning SpaceX for what could be a record-breaking IPO, the headline figure—up to $75 billion—drew the most attention, but the proposed listing is shaping up as much as a referendum on Musk’s broader strategy as it is on the company itself.

The company is expected to seek a valuation of more than $1.5 trillion, with discussions extending toward $1.75 trillion. If achieved, that would place SpaceX among the most valuable companies globally at listing.

The question is whether Musk can make that valuation credible to public-market investors.

SpaceX today reflects Musk’s push to combine multiple businesses under a single structure.

Beyond its core launch operations, the company now includes Starlink, its satellite internet network, and, following an all-stock deal, xAI—Musk’s artificial intelligence venture. The portfolio also connects to X, the social media platform he owns.

This expansion has changed how investors assess SpaceX. The original appeal centred on a dominant space company with growing commercial and government contracts. The current structure introduces exposure to artificial intelligence, where spending is high and returns remain uncertain.

People familiar with xAI’s finances told Bloomberg that the business is burning about $1 billion a month, according to Bloomberg, largely on computing infrastructure. That shift places Musk’s capital allocation decisions at the centre of the IPO discussion.

Despite the broader structure, Starlink continues to anchor SpaceX’s financial profile. The satellite internet business has become the company’s main source of cash flow, supporting operations and funding expansion, according to Bloomberg.

Its growth has been cited by analysts as a key factor supporting SpaceX’s valuation ambitions, particularly as subscriber numbers increase globally.

At the same time, that cash flow is being deployed across multiple projects, including Starship development and AI infrastructure. For investors, the balance between cash generation and spending is a critical point.

SpaceX’s role in NASA’s Artemis programme adds another dimension to the IPO. The company is developing the Starship Human Landing System, which is intended to land astronauts on the Moon, according to programme details from NASA.

This positions SpaceX as a key partner in future lunar missions and strengthens its ties to US government contracts. That relationship supports the company’s long-term outlook.

But it also depends on the progress of Starship, which remains under development. Artemis timelines have already faced delays, according to multiple media reports.

Notably, Elon Musk has remained unusually silent on Artemis-related developments in recent weeks, even as scrutiny around Starship timelines and mission readiness has increased.

SpaceX is working with major banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup, on preparations for the listing, according to people familiar with the matter.

The company has also considered structures that would allow insiders to retain control after going public. Musk’s influence is therefore expected to remain central even after the IPO.

That continuity may appeal to investors who have backed his previous ventures, including Tesla, whose shares have risen sharply over the past decade.

The IPO could take place as early as June 2026, according to people familiar with the timeline. As with other large listings, market conditions at the time will play a role in determining final pricing.

The scale of the offering—potentially the largest on record—means demand will need to be broad, spanning institutional and retail investors.

Whether investors are willing to support a valuation approaching $1.75 trillion will depend on how they assess SpaceX’s existing businesses alongside Musk’s expansion into artificial intelligence.

For many investors, the IPO will come down to Musk’s ability to deliver on ambitious projects. His track record, particularly with Tesla, is likely to factor into that assessment.

At the same time, SpaceX presents a different combination of businesses, with varying levels of maturity and capital requirements. The listing will give public investors their first detailed look at how those businesses perform together.

It will also test whether Musk can translate a privately built empire spanning space, connectivity and AI into a valuation that public markets are willing to sustain.