Saudi Arabia’s GDP grows 3.9% in Q2 on rebound in oil, non-oil sectors

Dubai: Saudi Arabia’s real GDP expanded by 3.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, according to flash estimates released by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT). The growth was led by a 4.7% increase in non-oil activities, followed by a 3.8% rise in oil activities and 0.6% in government activities.

On a quarterly basis, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.1% compared to Q1 2025, supported largely by a strong 5.6% jump in oil sector performance. Non-oil activities also posted a healthy 1.6% growth, while government activity declined slightly by 0.8%.

Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence expect this momentum to continue in the second half of 2025. “As oil production ramps up in line with OPEC+ agreements and Vision 2030 reforms continue to drive non-oil diversification, we forecast real GDP growth to accelerate to 4.8% in 2025, up from 2.0% in 2024,” they said in a statement.

Domestic demand and consumer spending are expected to play a leading role in driving the economy this year, though private fixed investment may stay muted. Public investment growth is also likely to remain constrained as the kingdom manages fiscal deficit targets.

The combination of rising oil exports and sustained non-oil expansion underscores Saudi Arabia’s resilience amid shifting global economic dynamics and positions it for stronger full-year performance.