Congestion. Blocked roads. Headache?

Last weekend those living in Dubai Marina, myself included, got a taste of the pain felt by those in Sharjah in recent times. No matter which way you turned there was a traffic jam.

Until then, I was thankful for the fact that I was always going against the traffic - into Bur Dubai in the morning and back to Dubai Marina in the evening.

The key question for residents and businesses in the Dubai Marina area, current or prospective, is whether the traffic caused by the Dubai International Boat Show at the DIMC was a one-off or in fact a sign of things to come.

It is no secret that Dubai Properties is due to hand over the keys to 40 Jumeirah Beach Residence (JBR) towers in March, although a further delay still looks likely. The volume of traffic will see a significant increase as a result.

Naturally, the issue is not confined to whether people can get home in time to kiss their children goodnight, although this is important enough. It will also affect those doing business in the area.

For instance, will Marina Walk continue to do good business on a Thursday night if it takes people an hour to travel the last two kilometres of the journey - its problems could shift from a shortage of parking to a shortage of clientele?

Meanwhile, will people find it desirable to live in the area, regardless of the quality of apartments and views available there?

Dropping prices

This could lead to a significant fall in rents and property prices more than the average - Standard Chartered Global Research is still forecasting an average drop of 20-30 per cent in Dubai residential property prices over the course of the next two to three years.

And what would such a fall mean for the economy?

Then, of course, there is the environmental impact of having people sitting in their stationary SUVs for an hour. Of course, there is good news.

First, the government has already undertaken significant steps to ease the flow of traffic in and out of Dubai Marina, and much of it seems to be near completion - maybe it will neatly coincide with the opening of JBR.

Meanwhile, it is clear that some of these roadworks and changes in traffic flow have temporarily exacerbated the traffic problems.

However, only time will tell whether the changes will be sufficient to manage the huge increase in traffic or not.

What is clear is that Dubai traffic patterns are due to change in a significant way.

Within Dubai itself, we would expect the flow to normalise somewhat, alleviating congestion for those living in Sharjah and commuting to Dubai/Jebel Ali, and increasing congestion for those living in Dubai Marina and the surrounding areas.

Meanwhile, a property shortage in Abu Dhabi means that some people will likely choose to live in Dubai Marina/ Greens/ Springs etc and commute - a neighbour of mine already commutes to Abu Dhabi airport.

All this will change the costs of doing business in New Dubai. The extent to which this is the case depends on how successful the government's pre-emptive strikes against congestion are.

The writer is Regional Head of Research, Middle East and South Asia, Standard Chartered Bank.