Top 20 countries with biggest oil reserves: Where Iran ranks, crude oil to hit $120/barrel?

Beneath the immediate chaos of the US-Israel vs Iran war lies the deeper truth about oil's dual nature: abundant yet fragile.

But which country holds the most fossil fuel reserves?

Currently, proven reserves show Venezuela leading with 303 billion barrels, followed by Saudi Arabia (267 billion) and Iran (~208 billion), with OPEC controlling over 60% of the total.

Production realities diverge — sanctions hobble Iran and Russia, while US shale innovation drives output to ~13 million barrels per day (about 18% of global supply), outpacing reserve-heavy nations like Russia and Canada.

Brent crude has surged 10-13% since the operation began, breaching $81 per barrel as of 8.15AM GMT on Monday, first time since 2024 and trading around $79-82 in recent sessions.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has climbed 7-8%, reaching levels near $74 (with reports showing $72.63-$73.58 amid ongoing volatility).

Just weeks prior, WTI had traded calmly in the $67-70 range, underscoring the speed of this rally driven by geopolitical risk premiums.

Analysts say further escalation could hurt the world economy.

JPMorgan warns that a sustained Hormuz disruption could propel Brent toward $120 per barrel, as Gulf producers might only maintain normal output for about 25 days before storage saturation forces shutdowns.

Other projections suggest $100-150 in extreme scenarios, with Wall Street eyeing a near-term $15-20 spike and some models reaching $150-180 if the conflict drags on for weeks.

US consumers could feel the pinch quickly: gasoline prices may rise 5-10 cents per gallon daily in the short term, potentially totaling 25-50 cents overall, impacting transportation, heating, and everyday goods amid lingering inflation pressures.

Recent sanctions on Russia and Iran have tightened 2026 forecasts, but easing restrictions on Venezuela (with the world's largest reserves) could offer relief, say oil industry analysts.

The equilibrium remains precarious: massive underground wealth vulnerable to above-ground geopolitics.

Markets now hang on every headline. Prolonged conflict could fuel higher surges; de-escalation might trigger sharp retreats.