Supply fears grow as US-Iran tensions threaten key Hormuz shipping route

Oil prices rose early on Monday while gold retreated, signaling that investors remain concerned about supply risks in the Middle East but are growing more confident the latest US-Iran military exchanges will not spiral into a full-scale regional war.
As of 8:32 am in Tokyo on June 29, 2026, Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 0.55% to $72.389, according to Trading Economics.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped 1.33% to $70.15.
Natural gas futures climbed 0.82% to 3.306, gasoline rose 0.90% to 2.9836, and heating oil added 1.30% to 3.2499, reflecting continued concerns over energy supplies as tensions persist around the Gulf.
The gains came despite continued diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran.
Technical talks on implementing the US-Iran memorandum of understanding remain scheduled, even after both sides exchanged missile and drone strikes over the weekend.
Investors continue to monitor developments around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes.
Although commercial traffic has resumed, shipping remains below normal levels, and higher insurance and freight costs continue to support crude prices.
Safe-haven demand, however, eased.
Gold fell 0.57% to 4,063.75, while silver slipped 0.20% and copper edged down 0.19%, suggesting investors rotated away from defensive assets as fears of an immediate disruption to global oil flows moderated.
Agricultural commodities were mixed. Soybeans dipped 0.07%, while wheat dropped 2.27%, extending losses amid improving supply expectations. Coal eased 0.28%, while steel gained 0.33%, reflecting resilient industrial demand.
European energy markets moved in the opposite direction.
EU natural gas futures fell 2.74% to 40.87, indicating traders expect regional gas supplies to remain adequate despite the geopolitical uncertainty.
Overall, commodity markets reflected a cautious balancing act: traders continue to price in a geopolitical risk premium for oil while betting that diplomacy and military restraint will prevent the Gulf crisis from severely disrupting global energy supplies.