Oil prices on edge: Trump tariffs, Red Sea risks and US inflation keep markets guessing

Crude prices face pressure from new US tariffs, Middle East threats, and inflation signals

Last updated: July 13, 2025 | 14:01

2 MIN READ

From new U.S. tariffs to tensions in key oil routes, the pressure is building — and traders are bracing for what comes next.

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Dubai: Oil prices may look stable — but don’t get too comfortable just yet.

Several fresh threats are brewing, and they could shake up global crude markets in the weeks ahead. From new U.S. tariffs to tensions in key oil routes, the pressure is building — and traders are bracing for what comes next.

One major wildcard? U.S. President Donald Trump. His latest round of proposed tariffs includes a 50% levy on Brazilian oil imports — a move that could disrupt flows from one of America’s key crude suppliers.

Trump also teased a “major statement” on Russia, raising speculation that he may propose further curbs on Moscow’s oil exports. That adds to lingering geopolitical tensions already heightened by deadly Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which are keeping oil shipping routes under threat.

But beyond politics and war zones, the oil market’s next big move might come from a very different source: U.S. inflation data.

Also Read: UAE petrol prices rise in July: What can residents expect in coming months?

Upcoming economic reports — especially the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — are likely to influence interest rate expectations and fuel demand outlooks. If inflation heats up again, it could prompt rate hikes that dampen energy demand in the world’s largest economy.

Despite all this noise, some market experts remain bearish.
“Prices are simply not justified,” says Scott Shelton, energy specialist at TP ICAP. “The outlook for crude oil prices appears bleak to me.”

So, is oil headed for a drop or due for a surge? That depends on how the next few weeks play out — in Washington, the Middle East, and Wall Street.

Also Read: UAE residents say tolls and parking fees cost more than fuel - here’s how they save money

Justin VargheseYour Money Editor

Justin is a personal finance author and seasoned business journalist with over a decade of experience. He makes it his mission to break down complex financial topics and make them clear, relatable, and relevant—helping everyday readers navigate today’s economy with confidence. Before returning to his Middle Eastern roots, where he was born and raised, Justin worked as a Business Correspondent at Reuters, reporting on equities and economic trends across both the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions.