Norway defies expectations: Oil output tops forecasts, hits 1.722 million bpd in May

Norway's offshore oil industry continued to outperform expectations in May, with crude production once again exceeding official forecasts despite easing from April's exceptionally strong output, underscoring the Nordic country's role as one of Europe's most dependable energy suppliers during a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Preliminary data from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) showed crude oil production averaged 1.722 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, down from 1.952 million bpd in April but still 7.2% above the government's forecast of 1.607 million bpd.

Overall petroleum production — including crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids and natural gas — totaled 3.82 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding official projections by 2.9%, although output slipped modestly from April's peak as seasonal maintenance and operational work affected offshore fields.

Natural gas production averaged 303 million cubic meters per day, broadly in line with expectations but below April's level.

The stronger-than-expected performance comes at a critical time for Europe, where Norway has become the continent's largest supplier of natural gas following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Stable Norwegian production has helped cushion European energy markets from supply disruptions elsewhere, particularly amid renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz that have kept oil traders on edge.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risks despite expectations of weaker demand this year.

While the recent US-Iran diplomatic framework has eased fears of a prolonged supply shock, shipping disruptions and elevated insurance costs in the Gulf continue to inject a geopolitical premium into crude prices.

Despite May's month-on-month decline, Norway's petroleum sector has maintained a solid pace in 2026, with year-to-date production running about 4% above the same period last year.

The latest figures reinforce Norway's reputation, according to energy industry publication OilPrice.com.

Norway is known for operational reliability.

Production is expected to gradually decline later this decade as major offshore developments mature and investment shifts toward smaller tie-back projects.