IEA: Global crude oil demand set for sharpest quarterly crash since Covid
Global fuel use set to slide as softer economy and policy shifts hit consumption, says IEA
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global oil demand is headed for its "steepest" quarterly drop since the Covid shock, with the agency’s outlook pointing to weakening consumption in April and the second quarter as trade tensions and softer economic momentum hit fuel use.
An OPEC+ report, meanwhile, revealed that the group’s output fell by 7.9 million barrels per day in March, largely due to the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.
Investors are now turning their attention to the IEA’s upcoming monthly market report for clearer signals on global supply-demand conditions.
Transport demand destruction
IEA's estimate matters because oil demand is usually driven by transport, industry and petrochemicals, so a broad slowdown signals pressure beyond the energy market itself.
The IEA’s medium-term view is still that global oil demand will not collapse outright, but rather plateau around the end of the decade as EV adoption, efficiency gains and substitution in power generation gradually cap growth.
In its Oil 2024 report, the agency says demand growth is slowing from 2.1 mb/d in 2023, with total demand reaching about 105.6 mb/d by 2029 before edging down slightly in 2030.
It also notes that growth is increasingly concentrated in non-OECD Asia, especially India and China, while OECD consumption keeps declining.
The current trend is notable, says HFI Research, because it echoes the pandemic-era collapse, when lockdowns crushed mobility and oil demand fell sharply.
This time, the driver is different: not a health emergency, but weaker macro conditions, policy shifts, and structural changes in how energy is consumed.
In practical terms, the reports suggests the oil market is moving from a post-pandemic rebound into a more fragile phase, where even modest changes in growth, prices or EV adoption can quickly change the demand picture.
EVs to cut oil consumption: EIA
The agency's 2024 report predicted that EVs would the "curtail consumption" of key fuels, global EV sales continue to show impressive growth.
IEA’s Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024, notes that sales could reach around 17 million in 2024, from 14 million in 2023, with EVs accounting for nearly one in five cars sold globally.
Till 2023, the EV phenomenon remained "primarily a Chinese one," EIA stated citing 2023 data showing the majority of EV sales were in China (60%), with Europe (25%) and the United States (10%) accounting for the bulk of sales elsewhere.
And back in 2024, the agency reckoned that the rise of EV will "persist", with total sales projected to reach 40 million in 2030.
That's when almost "one in two new cars will be an EV", the report projected.
This dominance is set to continue – almost one in three cars on the roads in China by 2030 is expected to be electric, compared to almost one in five in both the United States and the European Union
EIA REPORT: By 2040, the rise of electric vehicles (EV) will displace around 6 mb/d of "road fuels demand".
Crude futures down
WTI crude futures dropped below $96 per barrel on Tuesday (April 14, 2026), reversing gains from the previous session as reports indicated that the US and Iran are considering further negotiations aimed at securing a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce expires.
President Donald Trump stated that Tehran had initiated contact with Washington, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled readiness to pursue continued dialogue, provided it remains within the bounds of international law and regulations.
Both sides failed to reach a deal after 21 hours of negotiations over the weekend, prompting President Trump to announce a blockade on Iranian oil shipments.
