Dual chokepoint: Oil surges as Trump rejects Iran deal, Murban jumps 3%

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday (Sept. 29, 2026) as President Donald Trump’s rejection of an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks elevated, with Brent up 1.4% near $106.80 and U.S. WTI gaining 1% around $93.50 as of morning Asian trade (10.19am, Beijing time).

Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude led gains, rising 3.4% to $116.90, reflecting tighter Gulf supplies and higher freight costs after weeks of shipping disruptions and a Saudi pipeline outage that curtailed Red Sea exports.

Natural gas edged up 0.9% to $3.13 as traders weighed Middle East tensions against seasonal demand.

President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days has kept the world’s most important oil choke point effectively shut.

Commercial shipping traffic is running roughly 75–90% below pre‑conflict levels, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO).

The closure, in place since fighting erupted in February, has forced most tankers to idle, use longer detours or rely on limited “authorised” corridors, while Iran’s Gulf Strait Authority has warned ships against using unauthorised routes under threat of consequences.

With Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has leaned more heavily on pipelines to the Red Sea and on the Bab al‑Mandab Strait, but that gateway is now under intensified strain from Houthi attacks that have cut weekly transits to about 25 vessels from higher pre‑war levels.

Analysts warn that sustained Houthi pressure on Bab al‑Mandab could create a second maritime front, forcing more carriers to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks of sailing time and significantly higher freight and insurance costs.

The dual disruptions in Hormuz and the Red Sea have already tightened global oil supplies, pushed benchmark prices above $100 a barrel at points, and raised the risk of further inflationary pressure on fuel and goods that depend on Middle East shipping lanes.

Until a deal is reached to reopen Hormuz or secure safe passage through Bab al‑Mandab, shippers are likely to continue avoiding the highest‑risk corridors, sustaining elevated costs and delays for energy and cargo flows between Asia, Europe and the Americas.