The UAE economy is expected to grow at 3 per cent next year, according to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). For 2018, meanwhile, the UAE’s growth has been projected at a more modest 2 per cent compared to the projections of 3.4 per cent made in last October. The country’s economic growth has been revised downwards to 0.5 per cent in 2017 from a projected 1.3 per cent in October last year.
GCC countries overall are projected to grow at slower pace in 2018 than the earlier projections according to the IMF estimates.
Relative to the forecasts in the October WEO, with the pickup in oil prices, prospects for oil exporters have improved somewhat with a small downward revision to 2018 growth and a positive revision to 2019 growth.
In Saudi Arabia, growth is projected to resume this year, rising to 1.7 per cent from a contraction of 0.7 per cent in 2017. Growth in 2019 is expected to rise slightly to 1.9 per cent as oil output increases, with the assumed expiration of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) Plus production cut agreement. For Saudi Arabia, the forecast has been revised up from the October WEO by 0.6 and 0.3 percentage points for 2018 and 2019, respectively.
Latest IMF numbers for 2017 show Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had negative growth of -0.7 per cent and -2.5 per cent respectively, while Qatar had a 2 per cent real GDP growth.
Qatar’s economy is projected to grow at 2.6 per cent and 2.7 per cent, in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Kuwait is projected to recover from recession and report a positive growth of 1.3 per cent in 2017 followed by 3.8 per cent growth in 2019.
The IMF has projected Global growth to strengthen from 3.8 per cent in 2017 to 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019, driven by a projected pickup in growth in emerging markets and developing economies and resilient growth in advanced economies, according to the Word Economic Outlook (WEO) from the IMF.
The forecast for 2018 and 2019 is stronger than in the October 2017 WEO by 0.2 percentage point for each year, with positive revisions compared with the October 2017 WEO for emerging market and developing economies and especially for advanced economies.
The global effects of US fiscal policy changes account for almost half of the global growth upgrade for 2018-19 compared with October. Beyond 2019, global growth is projected to gradually decline to 3.7 per cent by the end of the forecast horizon.