Hong Kong: China will overtake the US as the world's largest trading nation by 2016, as intra-Asian commerce and rising demand from emerging markets boost shipments, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.
Trade in China and the Asia-Pacific will grow at an annualised pace almost twice as fast as the world average over the next five years, driven by shipments within the region and expanded ties with Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa (Mena), HSBC said in a global trade report issued yesterday.
Demand from traditional consumer markets in the West is expected to slow as the evolving European debt crisis threatens the global outlook. China, the world's second-biggest economy, will stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and an acceleration in infrastructure projects, raising its imports of commodities from Latin America and the Middle East, HSBC said.
"The world's largest businesses are continuing to broaden their supply chains across Asia-Pacific" that will boost trade within the region, Simon Constantinides, HSBC's regional head of global trade, Asia-Pacific, said. "As China expands its global reach, especially into South America and Africa, its substantial energy demand and higher manufacturing output will drive strong imports and exports within these sectors."
Largest exporter
HSBC estimates the value of China's trade will rise at an annualised rate of 6.6 per cent over the next five years, compared with 6.5 per cent gains for Asia and 3.8 per cent for the world, according to the report. China's share of global imports and exports will increase to 12.3 per cent in 2026 from 9.8 per cent last year, the bank estimates. The nation overtook Germany as the world's largest exporter in 2009.
