Why did global air passenger growth slow in February?

Geneva - Global air travel demand grew slower in February 2025, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reporting a 2.6 per cent year-on-year increase in total revenue passenger kilometres (RPK).

Meanwhile, Middle Eastern airlines posted a 3.1 per cent rise in demand, slightly outpacing the global average but lagging behind regions such as Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

Despite slower growth, Middle Eastern airlines maintained a strong load factor of 81.9 per cent, ranking third globally behind Asia-Pacific (85.7 per cent) and Latin America (81.7 per cent).

By comparison, the global load factor stood at 81.1 per cent (+0.4 ppt). International demand rose 5.6 per cent compared to February 2024.

IATA, which released data for February 2025 global passenger demand on Monday, said the overall capacity (ASK) grew 2.0 per cent globally, while Middle Eastern carriers expanded capacity by 1.3 per cent, keeping supply growth below demand and helping lift the region’s load factor to 81.9 per cent (+1.4 percentage points year-on-year).

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said that despite the slower growth, February traffic hit an all-time high. However, he warned of potential turbulence ahead, particularly in North America, where domestic and international traffic declined.

Walsh said, “While traffic growth slowed in February, much of this can be explained by factors including the leap year and lunar new year falling in January compared to February last year. February traffic hit an all-time high, and the number of scheduled flights is set to continue increasing in March and April.”

He added, “But we need to keep a close eye on developments in North America, which saw falls in both domestic and international traffic.”

Walsh also renewed calls for a reform of the EU261 passenger rights framework, arguing that airlines continue to bear the brunt of compensation claims even when delays stem from infrastructure failures, such as the recent Heathrow shutdown.

“The recent shutdown of Heathrow reminded us once again that the current passenger rights regime in Europe and the UK is unfit for purpose. The annual costs of compensation, care and assistance run into the billions,” he stated.  EU261 is a European Union regulation that establishes the rights of air passengers in cases of flight delays, cancellations, and denied boarding.“Thankfully, the Polish Presidency of the EU has recognized that this is a drag on European competitiveness and is progressing with much-needed and long-anticipated reforms to EU261. While many of the proposed reforms are sensible, the package stops short of a real solution,” he stated.

Even with the reforms, EU261 will still target the airlines with penalties even if the root cause of delays is an infrastructure incident out of their control—like what happened at Heathrow last week.

“Over two decades of EU261 have not seen a reduction in delays because infrastructure providers have no incentive to improve their game. Sadly, European travellers will likely see this play out again in this summer’s peak travel season. Genuine reform of EU261 must ensure that all parties responsible for delays have a stake in the consequences,” said Walsh.