Israel – Iran war: Regional tensions impact UAE travel to visa-free Georgia, Armenia

Dubai: Outbound tourism from the UAE to Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries and Georgia has taken a significant hit amidst the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel.

Travel agents are reporting a sharp decline in bookings, as widespread flight cancellations, rerouting, and growing public fear deter residents from traveling to the affected regions.

CIS nations – including Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, and Georgia - are extremely popular tourism hotspots for UAE travellers.

Afi Ahmad, Chairman of Smart Travels, said there has been a substantial drop in CIS country tours. "Many flights were cancelled, and free-visa country tourism has dropped," he said. Ahmad explained that people are increasingly scared, choosing to travel only for severe emergencies, with business meetings largely moving online.

"There is a fear for travelling," he added, highlighting that extensive news and social media chatter has intensified these anxieties. “People are worried they will not be able to return to UAE in case the regional situation worsens. While these fears are baseless, the consensus is that people are worried for travel,” he said.

Rashid Ababas, Managing Director of Arooha Travels, confirmed the operational impact. "Many people who went recently got delayed and had to schedule changes. The ones who had to return returned this morning," he said.

Ababas highlighted that numerous delays are being reported due to airspace closures, leading to increased flight times and higher fuel costs for airlines. Flights that typically take 3-4 hours now take much longer, further deterring passengers.

Saj Ahmad, Chief Analyst at StrategicAero Research, elaborated on the broader implications. "Regional traffic suspensions will almost certainly continue while the prevailing conflict shows more signs of escalation rather than draw down," he said. Ahmad said that while airlines can temporarily reassign fleets and staff, the situation is more challenging for passengers in countries like Iraq, Jordan, and Syria, where travel options are now almost non-existent due to airspace restrictions.

"No airline is going to take the risk of operating flights when the heightened risk of miscalculation could easily turn into an avoidable tragedy – just as we saw in early 2020 when Iran’s military accidentally shot down a Ukrainian Boeing 737-800," Ahmad said.

Regarding the upcoming summer travel period, Ababas said that many ticket holders are now inquiring about travel safety, despite no widespread cancellations for broader destinations. Ahmad echoed this, stating that while some reluctance to fly is expected, the broader geographic options for travellers might prevent mass cancellations if airlines can still fill planes by rerouting.

GCC airlines, in particular, can largely reroute flights heading westwards towards Europe and North America over Egypt and the Mediterranean, and eastward bound flights over Oman to the Arabian Sea. This primarily adds to travel time due to altered flight paths.

However, Ahmad warned of a critical factor that could drastically change the outlook, “If Iran elects to launch offensive attacks on GCC nations that station US military interests.” In such a "worst-case scenario," Ahmad predicts a wider, messier, and prolonged war that would "decimate travel for as long as such a conflict raged," impacting oil prices and potentially leading to further economic turmoil.

Israel and Iran traded heavy bombardments for a third day, escalating fears of a wider regional conflict. On Sunday, Israel reported fresh missile attacks from Iran after striking Tehran, with blasts reported across Iran, including at a gas plant.

The escalation began with Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, triggering missile and drone strikes that killed three in Israel. Israel responded with mass airstrikes, reportedly killing key scientists and generals.