Rising importance of commercial intelligence in the GCC

Across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the way success in major projects is judged is evolving. For many years, projects were considered successful if they were large, fast to build, and technically impressive. Today, success is defined more broadly. Global studies suggest that nearly 80 per cent of major projects face delays, most often not due to engineering failure but to weak early-stage planning, slow decision-making, and unclear accountability across stakeholders.

Industry data indicates that in the first five months of 2025, the total value of new projects awarded across the region fell by nearly 40 per cent compared with the same period last year. Despite this slowdown, the UAE remains the region’s largest construction and infrastructure market, with projects worth over $88.2 billion committed in 2025.

As projects become larger, more expensive, and more publicly visible, a new capability has become essential: commercial intelligence. This is the ability to understand and manage the business side of delivery, including risk allocation, change approval mechanisms, and the cost and time implications of decisions. Last year, Local authorities cautioned engineering firms over unnecessary design elements that inflated costs, highlighting the consequences of technical solutions that lack commercial discipline.

Between 2010 and 2019, GCC markets were characterised by high project volumes, fast-track awards, and a tolerance for evolving scope. Since 2020, the environment has shifted toward fewer, larger, and more closely scrutinised investments, driven by tighter government capital allocation and a heightened focus on return on investment, lifecycle cost, and delivery certainty. Major Abu Dhabi government-linked entities, for example, now apply stage-gated investment approvals with much stronger emphasis on business case robustness before capital is released.

More recently, attention has shifted beyond recognising the importance of commercial intelligence to embedding it into how projects are shaped and governed. Rather than reacting to the cost overruns after the construction has started, the organizations are applying commercial insight at the point where outcomes are determined. Decisions taken at early stages of a project are increasingly shaping outcomes, ensuring cost-effectiveness and alignment with long-term objectives.

Government-linked entities that are managing multiple developments are using commercial analysis to prioritise projects, sequence delivery, and determine the optimal timing capital release. This means that some projects move forward in phases, others are redesigned to protect value and reduce exposure. The decisions are no longer based on assumptions or optimism, but on robust scenario analysis and transparent market intelligence.

Even the choices of design and specification are evaluated not only on the cost but on the long-term operational implications, especially useful for infrastructure assets where poor decisions can result in decades of elevated operating costs. Commercial intelligence is increasingly bridging the historical divide between project teams and asset operators.

What was once viewed as a back-office function has moved to the forefront of project delivery. Commercial decision-making is now critical to completing projects on time, protecting investment value, and maintaining trust between contractors, authorities, and investors. Leading GCC organisations are moving away from reactive cost control toward proactive, forward-looking commercial insight. For instance, a well-known government entity based in Abu Dhabi uses enhanced cost benchmarking and early contractor involvement that enabling faster investment decisions, clearer risk ownership, and reduced exposure to post-award variations.

Often misunderstood as an additional layer of control, commercial intelligence enables faster and more confident decision-making by clarifying risks, costs, and trade-offs early. Noticeably, major project delays often happen due to commercial and planning deficiencies - such as misaligned contracts, late scope definition, reactive cost management, and optimistic budgeting - rather than technical shortcomings.

As capital discipline increases across the GCC, mistakes have become more expensive. Delays, inefficiencies, and poor decisions now have a direct impact on financial performance and investor confidence. Government-linked entities managing large, multi-phase portfolios are therefore adopting phased, capital-efficient rollout strategies that balance funding availability with delivery timelines.

Commercial intelligence is not confined to finance or contracts teams. It is a leadership mindset that allows decision-makers to balance speed with value, align stakeholders early, and prioritise long-term outcomes over short-term fixes.

Looking ahead, as the GCC continues to invest in complex infrastructure and development, organisations that embed commercial intelligence into their culture and decision-making will deliver projects more efficiently and sustainably. By contrast, the organizations relying on technical strength alone will struggle. In the UAE, master-planned developers are building integrated delivery capabilities focused on sustainable communities, long-term value, and coordinated planning, while smaller, delivery-focused firms that consistently meet handover commitments are gaining market share.

A clear takeaway is that the organisations that invest in proactive commercial governance, data-driven decision-making, and commercially fluent leadership will move beyond firefighting. They will create delivery environments where risk is anticipated, value is protected, and trust is sustained. In today’s GCC, commercial excellence is no longer optional—it is the foundation of reliable and predictable delivery.

- The writer is Commercial Director at EllisDon