Japan is wake-up call for rest of the world

The massive earthquake and tsunami that hit the eastern coast of Japan, with its mounting casualties still being counted, may have repercussions on the future of nuclear energy.

Many energy facilities are affected, but the most serious is what happened to the Fukushima nuclear power station.

The damage engulfed all six units, causing radiation release and forcing many to be evacuated.

The incident was classified at level five on a scale of seven and is described as the second-worst nuclear disaster after Chernobyl in the Ukraine in 1986.

The Chernobyl meltdown caused 4,057 deaths and the evacuation of 300,000 people from the most contaminated areas.

Since then, the world growth rate of nuclear energy went down and never recovered —though in absolute terms consumption was increasing.

People were and continue to be apprehensive about nuclear energy and many opposition groups were successful in forcing governments to slow down or even abandon the quest for it. Although the end result of the Fukushima disaster is yet to come, people and governments are already on the move.

In Germany, demonstrations opposing nuclear energy were most vocal and immediately answered by the government's decision to close temporarily seven of the country's 17 plants and to order safety reviews of all.

The EU Energy Commissioner Oettinger said: "We must also raise the question if we in Europe, in the foreseeable future, can secure our energy needs without nuclear energy".

‘Scandalous comment'

In France, the biggest user of nuclear energy in Europe, President Sarkozy still came out supporting nuclear energy on account of independence and the struggle against greenhouse gases, but opposition groups described his comments as "scandalous" and called for the immediate closing of 16 reactors that have been in service for more than 30 years, as well as a longer-term plan to abandon nuclear power.

China, a great favourite of nuclear energy, stepped-up inspections in existing plants and announced the suspension of new approvals until safety standards are revised and strengthened.

Already, several countries that had been considering nuclear power stations such as Switzerland, Venezuela, the Philippines, Chile and others are having second thoughts or abandoning such plans.

In Ontario and Quebec in Canada, the governments are under pressure to abandon the expansion of nuclear energy or the renovation of existing reactors. Spain and Portugal are reported to have publicly called for a gradual phase-out of nuclear energy in Europe, and Spain is reassessing the safety of its plants.

However, President Obama defended the use of nuclear energy though there are opponents and fears in California and Indiana could be backing off nuclear energy due to the situation of both states on earthquake fault lines.

Similarly and despite renewed fears, Indonesia, Lithuania, Poland and other countries in Eastern Europe may go ahead with their nuclear programmes if they can finance it.

It is fair to say that support for nuclear energy has been dealt a blow by what happened in Fukushima. The age old debate about the dangers of nuclear energy is back in the forefront and may in time gain the strength it had in the 1970s and 1980s.

Costly accidents

In addition to Fukushima there have been many dangerous and costly nuclear accidents among which are Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Greifswald, Germany, Bohunice, Czechoslovakia and many others including submarine reactors. The problems of nuclear waste are far from being solved and the US, for instance, has accumulated more than 50,000 tonnes of spent fuel. Reprocessing is not allowed in the US and the waste is transferred to the Marshal Islands where people complain and have many problems as a result.

The cost of nuclear power stations is extremely high due the limited number of suppliers, the long time taken for completion and unavoidable cost overruns.

The original cost estimate was $45 billion while the actual cost was $145 billion. A 2009 MIT study estimated the cost of producing nuclear energy (including construction, maintenance and fuel) to be about 30 per cent higher than that of coal or gas.

In 2008, world consumption of nuclear energy was about 712 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) or six percent of total energy consumption and 15 per cent of electricity generation. By 2035 that may rise to 1,343 mtoe or 8 percent of total. It will be interesting to see when such estimates will be revised in the light of current sentiments. For some the nuclear "renaissance" of recent years may have gone with the Fukushima flames.

- The writer is a former head of Energy Studies Department at Opec Secretariat in Vienna.