Why Tesla could win big from new US autonomous driving rules

The US recently announced plans to establish a national framework for regulating autonomous vehicles (AVs), a move that could significantly reshape the future of mobility—and give Tesla a meaningful long-term advantage.

While the DOT’s proposal is still in its early stages, its intention is clear: to replace the patchwork of state-by-state rules with a unified federal system. That matters because, right now, companies like Tesla and Waymo must navigate 50 different regulatory environments, each with its own requirements and approval processes. For innovators like Tesla, that translates to lost time and higher costs.

The proposed framework would fall under the existing Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and likely be managed by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). While details remain scarce, the overarching goal is to remove regulatory friction and create a smoother pathway for AV adoption in the US.

Tesla’s stock surged around 10% on the announcement, reflecting investor optimism that a centralized system could help accelerate Tesla’s rollout of robotaxis and other autonomous tech. Although analysts at Morningstar kept their fair value estimate at $250 per share, they acknowledged that regulatory clarity could be a tailwind for Tesla’s AV ambitions.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has long positioned the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software as central to its long-term growth. In theory, a successful robotaxi network powered by FSD could dramatically improve Tesla’s margins and reshape the economics of urban mobility. A simplified regulatory regime would help Tesla move faster and scale more efficiently.

Analysts believe autonomous ride-hailing is poised to become a dominant mode of transportation in the next decade. Some forecasts suggest that robotaxis could account for up to 50% of all ride-hailing trips in the US and Canada by 2035. In such a scenario, companies with scalable autonomous tech and fewer regulatory barriers would be poised to lead.

It’s important to note that Tesla’s robotaxi thesis still depends heavily on the real-world performance of its FSD software—and on whether it can demonstrate safety and reliability at scale. But a federal framework at least eliminates one of the biggest unknowns: how long it will take to get regulatory approval.

For UAE-based investors tracking US equities, Tesla’s long-term AV potential adds another layer of value to consider. With the Dubai government also heavily investing in autonomous transport solutions, regional interest in companies like Tesla could grow.

While the stock may currently be fairly valued, any sustained policy support for AVs in the US could shift long-term projections upward. That makes the DOT’s move worth watching closely.