Oil shock 2.0? Houthis threaten Bab Al- Mandab shutdown as Hormuz drama reignites, crude prices rebound
Houthi threat and Hormuz turmoil rattle vital oil lanes, driving crude prices higher
As tensions in the Middle East surged again over the weekend, the Iran-backed Houthis threatened to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a crucial oil shipping lane that still serves crude flows from the Middle East through Red Sea ports.
A Houthis statement gives a hint of the risks to global shipping.
"If Sanaa decides to close the Bab Al-Mandab, then all of mankind and jinn (supernatural beings unseen to humans) will be utterly powerless to open it,” Houthi Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein al-Ezzi posted on X, according to media reports.
“And therefore, it is best for Trump - and the complicit world - to immediately end all practices and policies that obstruct peace, and to show the respect required for the rights of our people and nation,” he said.
The warning came after a brief easing in market fears on Friday, when Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open", only to reverse course on Saturday and say it was "closed again" amid the continuing US naval blockade targeting Iranian oil exports.
The Bab Al-Mandab strait is a crucial, narrow maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.
At 26 to 30 km (16 to 19 miles) wide at its narrowest point between the coasts of Yemen in Asia and Djibouti/Eritrea in Africa, it is actually narrower than the Hormuz Strait.
Marine traffic is limited in Bab Al Mandab: Because of the restricted space, shipping is effectively limited to two 2-mile-wide channels (one for inbound, one for outbound).
Shooting incident
On Saturday, the Indian government voiced "deep concern" at what it called a "shooting incident" involving two Indian-flagged ships (Jag Arnav and Sanmar Herald) in the Hormuz Strait.
The two Indian tankers turned back after being fired upon by Iranian gunboats, as confusion emerged in the middle of a war between the US, Israel, and Iran.
No injuries were reported, and the vessels were not damaged in the firing, according to marine trackers.
A distress message from one of the tankers has emerged, capturing the confusion that ensued during the firing.
A crew member on board the crude oil tanker, Sanmar Herald, is heard trying to communicate with the Iranian navy in a roughly 30-second audio shared by Tanker Trackers, a maritime intelligence firm that tracks shipments.
Sepah Navy. Sepah Navy. This is motor tanker Sanmar Herald. You gave me clearance to go. My name is second on your list. You are firing now. Let me turn back.Sanmar Herald, April 18, 2026 (Saturday)
WHY BAB AL MANDAB MATTERS: Bab Al-Mandab (Gate of Tears) Strait is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints as it links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Its narrowness is key to its strategic importance and vulnerability. At 30km (narrowest point), it is narrower than Hormuz Strait. Even when attacks do not sink ships, the threat alone can disrupt traffic, force rerouting around the "Cape of Good" Hope, and raise freight and insurance costs.
Divided Channel: The island of Perim (part of Yemen) lies in the strait, separating it into two distinct channels.
Western Channel (Dact-el-Mayun): The main, deeper shipping route is roughly 16 miles (25–26 km) wide, used for international tanker and container traffic.
Eastern Channel (Bab Iskender): Known as Alexander's Strait, this channel is much narrower and shallower, at approximately 2 miles (3–5 km) wide, and is primarily used for local or small-vessel traffic.
Crude oil prices back up
Oil prices, which had fallen 10% on Friday, rebounded early Monday as shipping through the region’s most sensitive chokepoints remained heavily restricted and the US Navy intercepted an Iranian vessel it accused of trying to break the blockade.
The seizure revived fears of a wider escalation and a prolonged disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies flow.
Traders who had bet on Friday that the crisis might ease quickly are now reassessing the outlook.
Short-lived hope
Developments over the weekend suggest the thaw has been short-lived, with Brent opening stronger this morning. Iran reimposed its restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz after the US kept its blockade in place, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Mathey stated in a Monday note.
After the US seized an Iranian-flagged vessel, there will be doubts over planned peace talks.
The Houthi threat to close Bab Al-Mandab adds another layer of risk for global energy markets.
Markets rattled
Any shutdown there would squeeze routes already under strain and could disrupt Saudi oil shipments that had been redirected to the Red Sea port of Yanbu after the Strait of Hormuz was shut.
The result is a fast-moving energy crisis with two potential choke points now in play.
Even short-lived disruptions can rattle shipping, lift freight costs, and send crude prices sharply higher if markets conclude the conflict is widening rather than easing.
Key timeline: Bab Al Mandab
Nov. 14, 2023: Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi warned the group would target Israeli ships in the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab Strait.
November 19, 2023: Houthis seized the Galaxy Leader, an Israeli-owned, Japanese-operated cargo ship, in the Red Sea and took its crew to Hodeida.
December 15, 2023: Houthis struck two Liberian-flagged tankers in the Red Sea and fired ballistic missiles toward Bab Al-MandAb, hitting one vessel and damaging another.
December 23–26, 2023: Houthis fired missiles and drones in the southern Red Sea, including an attack on the MSC United VIII after repeated warnings.
February 22, 2024: The Houthis announced a formal ban on vessels owned or linked to Israeli, British, or American entities in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea.
March 2, 2024: The cargo ship Rubymar sank in the Red Sea after a Houthi attack, becoming one of the clearest signs of the campaign’s economic impact.
April 2024: Houthi attacks resumed at near-daily frequency after a brief pause, including claims of strikes on Israel-linked shipping farther out in the Indian Ocean.
2024 overall: Analysts said the Houthis had carried out more than 100 attacks on commercial ships and warships since November 2023, effectively turning Bab Al-Mandeb into a zone of anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) pressure.
2025: The pace of attacks largely eased, but the threat remained active enough to keep rerouting and insurance costs elevated.
March 2026: Houthi threats resurfaced as tensions in the wider Iran conflict spilled back into Red Sea shipping risk.
