Lebanon searches for solution

Dubai: With no clear way out from the violent situation in Beirut on the horizon, Lebanese analysts believe at the moment there are equal chances for a settlement or an overall explosion.

One of the possibilities on the table is that the government could resign only after the election of a president.

"If a settlement were reached on several issues, mainly the election of a president, the government seems willing to resign," said Ahmad Ebrahim, a Lebanese sociologist who asked not to be called by his real name because of security reasons and out of fear for his personal safety in Beirut.

"The government has made it clear that it will not cling on indefinitely to power when a settlement is reached," the university professor told Gulf News.

Cabinet

Earlier yesterday, Lebanese officials denied reports of an imminent Cabinet resignation under the current circumstances.

"Now," one analyst explained, "there is no executive authority for the government to submit its resignation to, and the parliament has no such power."

Meanwhile, it seems that all concerned parties in the Lebanese crisis, according to analysts, want to seize power, and "whoever achieves a military victory will feel that dialogue and logic should be submitted to the logic of power," said the analyst.

According to the Lebanese political system, the top three positions, that of the presidency, premiership and parliamentary speaker, should be divided among the three main three sectors, the Maronite, Sunni and Shiite groups, in a country where there are 17 different religious groups.

At present sectarian tensions are "very, very critical," according to analysts.

"Tensions have reached their worst levels," said Lebanese columnist Hazeem Sagieh in an interview with Gulf News.

Sagieh believes it is difficult to predict a way out of the current crisis as it depends on several elements, including the positions taken by different Lebanese parties, international reaction and what happens at an expected emergency meeting of Arab foreign ministers.

Analysts differ in their views on whether the tension between Hezbollah, which is allied with Iran, and the government, supported by the US, is a reflection of American-Iranian tension, just on Lebanese soil.

"Not at all," replied Ghaleb Qandeel, a Lebanese columnist, who accused the government of implementing an American-Israeli agenda in Lebanon. "What the opposition is asking for is partnership [in power] and an agreement on the resistance."

Others think other elements are involved as well and the political crisis which has been going on for a while plays a role.

The pro-opposition and pro-government parties, for example, accused one another of disrupting law and order in recent days.

Meanwhile, news agency reports said hundreds of people have been flooding Lebanon's border crossings with neighbouring Syria yesterday as they fled the deadly sectarian violence that has gripped the country for the past three days.

With Lebanon's only civilian airport and Beirut port closed, foreign governments also scrambled to draw up plans to evacuate their citizens.

Crowds of men, women and children gathered at the Arida border crossing in northern Lebanon and the Masna'a crossing in the east trying to make their way out of the country, correspondents witnessed.

People fleeing the fighting, which has threatened to plunge Lebanon into a new civil war, included Britons, Americans, Germans and Cypriots as well as Syrian labourers.

At Arida tempers flared and children burst into tears as people pushed their way to the front.