Balance of power could shift in Lebanon

Beirut: Joseph Biden, the US Vice-President, had to drop by "his friends" in Beirut for a few hours. Israel is worried that Hezbollah could win control over the government. Iran says the opposition will win and that would "change the face" of regional politics.

Syria is crossing its fingers, hoping its allies would rout pro-Western rivals. The Saudi information minister too has visited Lebanon three times in as many weeks.

Sunday's elections in Lebanon are surely getting the attention of the powers to be. Lebanese leaders and analysts alike agree that the polls could possibly tip the current balance of power in an already divided Arab world of "moderates" and "rejectionists".

"The elections will surely have a regional impact," said Hussam Kanafani, head of the foreign desk at the popular Lebanese daily Al Akhbar, pointing at the competition between Arab heavyweights US-backed Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and Iranian-backed Syria, to gain the upper hand in the tiny, yet strategically important country.

On the other hand, "there is also a regional impact on and interference in the elections." The pro-Western alliance that has ruled Lebanon over the past four years, the March 14 coalition, is wary that the country will be dragged into the regional power struggle if the opposition wins.

"The republic today is in danger," Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces Party, a staunch anti-Syria ally of the ruling majority told his supporters on Saturday.

"We either join the civilised world or step backward in a republic of war and death," he said during an election rally in the northern city of Al Batroun.

Geagea is not running in the elections. But his party is part of the March 14 coalition, and is spearheading a campaign to portray the elections as a do or die race between a "civilised" or a moderate Lebanon and a state "hijacked" by Hezbollah, the powerful Shiite group, credited for the liberation of the south from Israel in 2000 and rebuffing the Israeli war on Lebanon in 2006.

Hezbollah is the only party that kept its arms after the end of the 1975-1990 civil war. Its critics say it holds on to its arms, and keeps up its confrontational attitude towards Israel, as bargaining chips for its Syrian and Iranian allies.

Syria is still in a state of war with Israel which occupies the Golan Heights and Iran is engaged in a standoff with the US and its Western allies over its controversial nuclear programme.

Hezbollah leads a diverse alliance of Shiites, Sunnis, Druze and Christians, including the Patriotic Free Movement, led by former army commander Michel Aoun, who recently had to repeatedly deny that Hezbollah will rule the country if the opposition won.

"I swear by the heavens I will not let him rule," he jokingly told his supporters at a Thursday election rally, referring to Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah.

"They are trying to discredit Aoun and scaring the Christians by telling the Lebanese people Hezbollah will rule their life," Bassam Al Hashim, a PFM senior official told Gulf News.

He said the PFM and other opposition parties, including Hezbollah, are "honest" in their pursuit of administrative and financial reforms including rooting out corruption that "prevailed in the past four years".

"This is what scares them," he adds, in reference to the March 14 block.

Opposition leaders are keen to distance themselves from regional politics and emphasise their electoral programme, full with such things as equal development, reforms, independent judiciary.

But they are not getting help from regional allies. Although Syria, the former powerbroker, has carefully refrained from making any comment on the elections, its Tehran ally was not.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said last week that if the opposition wins in Lebanon, "the face of the region will change in favour of solidifying the resistance front [against the US and Israel]".

His words were a gift to the March 14 leaders who have since made the comment their favourite campaign weapon: 'See we told you so. Lebanon will be an Iranian proxy if Hezbollah and its friends win.'

On the other hand, a rare visit by the US vice president on May 23 was perceived by the opposition as yet another evidence Washington was fully involved in the elections.

His meeting with March 14 leaders and his comment that the US might reassess its aid programme to Lebanon if the opposition wins the elections only made stronger the Hezbollah case that the US and Israel, are seeking to boost the March 14 chances.

Hezbollah's TV Al Manar on Friday accused the Saudis of sending hundreds of thousands of dollars to pro-US candidates in the northern Christian town of Zgherta, where a leader of the opposition Sulaiman Frenjieh, personal friend of Syrian president Bashar Al Assad, is expected to win.

"Our neighbours are watching the polls very closely. They are very nervous, because there isn't a clear front runner so far although most people expect the [Hezbollah led] opposition to win, by a slight majority though," he told Gulf News.

But for sure, he adds, Lebanon will not be the same on June 8, the day the results are to be announced.

Agenda who's contesting March 14 alliance programmes

- Building state institutions.
- Disarming all non-state players, including Hezbollah.
- End to hostility with Israel, based on the 1949 armistice.
- A neutral Lebanon in the current regional polarisation conflict. Diversifying economy n Measures to attract foreign investments.
- Supporting the UN special tribunal in the Hariri assassination

Key players of the alliance

Sa'ad Hariri, leader of the Future Movement and leader of the current Parliamentary majority. The majority of Lebanon's Sunnis support him.

Walid Junblatt, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party. A former Hezbollah ally who turned pro-Western following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Considered the main leader of the Druze community.

Ameen Gemayel, Leader of the Phalanges Party, a former president who spent 10 years in self-exile in France during Syria's 30 years of political and military domination.

Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces Party, a war-time ruthless militia which fought in the name of Christians and he was imprisoned for 11 years for killing two leading politicians

Opposition programmes

- Administrative and financial reforms.
- Rearming the national army while maintaining Hezbollah resistance movement.
- Equal development across Lebanon with emphasis on northern and eastern remote areas.
- Overhaul of the state institutions, especially the judiciary.
- Rooting out corruption
- New electoral law, based on proportional representation

Key opposition players

Nabih Berri, speaker of the parliament since 1992 and leader of the pro-Syrian Amal Movement, the second largest Shiite party.

Michel Aoun, leader of the widely popular, Free Patriotic Movement, a mainly Christian party. He returned to Lebanon 4 years ago, when Syrian forces left the country.

Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, the largest Shiite party. He is not a candidate but the party has 11 candidates mainly in the south.

Omar Karami, a former prime minister and a pro-Syrian politician who faces an uphill battle in his Tripoli hometown. Sulaiman Frenjieh, a Maronite former minister, a staunch anti-Hariri advocate.

Middle ground President Michel Sulaiman The former army chief is holding a middle ground. A number of candidates though said they will form a parliamentary block loyal to the president if they won. He calls for granting the mostly ineffective presidential post more powers, stripped by the Taef Accord, which ended the civil war of 1975-1990.