Abbas likely to remain influential even if he quits

Occupied Jerusalem: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas may follow through on his vow this week not to run for reelection. But that hardly means he'll fade from the limelight.

Even if his term expires in January — and there is little certainty that a vote for his successor will be held as scheduled — Abbas holds three other titles that would continue to make him the most influential figure in Palestinian political life and the most important leader in any peace initiative with Israel.

In the complex political bureaucracy that the Palestinians have erected in their drive to establish a state, the Palestinian Authority is only one branch of a structure that includes the Abbas-led Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO), the dominant Fatah party that Abbas heads, and a PLO-chosen president of the state of Palestine. That office is also held by Abbas.

In announcing on Thursday that he did not wish to run again for the Palestinian Authority presidency, the 74-year-old Abbas made no mention of abandoning those other posts.

‘Not gone'

Abbas "could stay in a position of power for a very long time," regardless of whether he ever runs again for president of the Palestinian Authority, said Diana Buttu, a former member of a Palestinian group that negotiated with Israel. "He is not gone."

The level of concern over Abbas' possible departure speaks not only to his role as a key player in the region, but also of the leadership vacuum that could result if he steps aside.

He is regarded as a moderate and a chief advocate of non-violent negotiations with Israel, a leader who has sanctioned the buildup of the US-supported Palestinian security forces that are credited with a marked reduction in the West Bank of violence against Israelis.

"It's definitely an Israeli interest, as it is an American, Western, Palestinian one, that there be a moderate and pragmatic Palestinian leadership," Israel's deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon said.

Still, many Israelis suspect Abbas isn't going anywhere soon. "The question is, is it part of a ploy?" said Gerald Steinberg, chairman of the political science department at Bar Ilan University. "Everybody will wait and see what happens after January 24."