Shut down proposed to fight pandemic

London: Whitehall have drawn up draconian plans to effectively shut Britain down to fight a bird flu pandemic. The plans include bringing the army into the streets to combat the effects of a pandemic.

Restricted entry at ports, the cancellation of major public events such as football matches and rock concerts, and the establishment of isolation wards in boarding schools are some of the measures outlined in a Cabinet Office document headed "Contingency Planning for a Possible Influenza Pandemic".

The contingency plans warn that the threat posed by H5N1 avian flu must be judged "one of the highest current risks to the UK".

Spectre

The spectre of a virus on the scale of the 1918 flu pandemic, which claimed an estimated 50 million people worldwide, could not be ruled out, the document said.

The document estimates that if mutation takes place it is possible that a quarter of Britons will be infected. This infection is likely to take place over stages, the document said, and could result in 53,700 deaths, four times as many as flu normally causes.

However, the document also examines the likely toll from a doomsday scenario. This looks at an infection rate hitting close to 50 per cent of the population. But as the virus mutates, it will probably lose much of its potency.

Nonetheless, an infection rate of 50 per cent would probably translate into a fatality rate of 2.5 per cent resulting in what it calls the worst case leading to the death of 709,300 people.

Such possibilities, the document says, demand the consideration and possible introduction of stringent measures. These include restrictions on travel, the cancellation of events where large numbers of people would attend, and the army being brought in to protect vital services.

Key industry and business leaders have been told by the government to draw up contingency plans to keep their companies

going. The government has told these captains of commerce to expect a reduced workforce in the event of a pandemic of about 30 per cent.

Priority antiviral shots

The government has a priority list of key personnel to give antiviral drugs to.

This is about 25 per cent of the population and incudes doctors, nurses, and teachers as well as the security forces and those deemed to be at highest risk of infection.