Typhoon activity in 2025: A busier-than-expected year so far

Manila: The 2025 Pacific typhoon season, which runs year-round but peaks from June to October, has already surpassed initial forecasts of below-average activity.

PAGASA's early predictions called for 16 to 19 tropical cyclones entering the PAR — defined as the region between 115°E-135°E and 5°N-25°N — but as of October 2, 16 cyclones have already affected the Philippines this year, with Paolo marking the latest entry.

This tally includes everything from tropical depressions to super typhoons, with the season's first system forming as early as February 11 near the Philippines.

Basin-wide, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) report 30 tropical cyclones have formed in the northwest Pacific so far, yielding 19 named storms (winds ≥65 km/h) and eight typhoons (winds ≥118 km/h).

2 to 4 more weather systems in October

One has escalated to super typhoon status.

The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index stands at 120.2 units, indicating moderate overall intensity despite the high volume.

PAGASA anticipates 2 to 4 more systems in October alone, with 5 to 9 possible through December, potentially pushing the annual total toward 21-25 for the Philippines.

(Data compiled from PAGASA and JMA reports; table excludes non-entering PAR systems.)

Strongest Typhoon of 2025: Super Typhoon Ragasa

No storm in 2025 has matched the ferocity of Super Typhoon Ragasa (locally named Nando), which roared into infamy in September as the basin's — and the world's — most powerful cyclone to date.

Forming on September 17 as the season's 18th named storm, Ragasa underwent explosive intensification, peaking with 1-minute sustained winds of 165 mph (265 km/h) — equivalent to a high-end Category 5 hurricane — and a minimum central pressure of 905 hPa on September 21.

This made it not only the strongest typhoon of the year but also one of the most intense on record for rapid strengthening in the Philippine Sea.

Ragasa devastated northern Luzon on September 22, triggering floods, landslides, and at least three deaths, before slamming Taiwan's Hualien County — causing a mountain lake to burst and leaving 14 dead — and barreling toward southern China.

It prompted unprecedented warnings, including Hong Kong's Hurricane Signal No. 10 for over 10 hours, a rare back-to-back issuance in one year.

Economic losses are still being tallied, but early estimates exceed hundreds of millions, underscoring the storm's role in amplifying climate vulnerabilities like warmer sea surface temperatures.

In comparison, other heavy hitters like Typhoon Neoguri (Category 4, high-latitude intensification) and Typhoon Bualoi (Category 2, dual landfalls in Philippines and Vietnam) pale beside Ragasa's might.

As Paolo lashes the country's north, it serves as a stark reminder of the Philippines' frontline exposure to these escalating threats—resilience will be key in the months ahead.