Why Pakistan's Musharraf is in no mood to go

Dubai: Coalition partners in Pakistan are trying their best to put pressure on President Pervez Musharraf to resign, as his impeachment process can take months.

But the presidency has made it clear that Musharraf is in no mood to resign despite diplomatic efforts and backdoor contacts offering him a "safe exit".

The long procedure for impeachment notwithstanding, coalition partners are seeking the president's resignation as they do not seem to have a clear two-thirds majority to impeach him. They need 295 votes out of 440 members from the National Assembly and the Senate.

Although it seems a close call on paper, the numbers game in parliament could go down to the wire.

The anti-Musharraf parties, which also include the Jamaat-i-Islami and some Balochistan-based nationalist parties sitting in the opposition benches, have 274 members - 235 in the 340-seat National Assembly and 39 in the 100-seat Senate - which is far short of the required numbers. There are 27 independent members and the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid) has a strength of 130 - 87 in the National Assembly and 52 in the Senate. But they also include dissidents who may vote against Musharraf.

Decisive vote

Altaf Hussain's Mutahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) will have the decisive vote. They are known to be a pro-Musharraf group and will play a big role in the impeachment process.

The PML-Q and PML-Functional of Pir Pagara have repeatedly assured support for the president. They have 31 members, including 25 in the National Assembly and six in the Senate. Impeaching the president will be a far-fetched dream if the MQM does not vote against him. It is believed the MQM leadership is also not happy because Pakistan Peoples Party Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari did not take them into confidence before deciding to start the impeachment procedure.

It is uncertain how long the impeachment proceedings will last after a notice for the move is given by at least half the total membership of the National Assembly. This is to be followed by the summoning of a joint sitting by the National Assembly speaker "not earlier than seven days and not later than fourteen days after the receipt of the notice".

"The joint sitting may investigate or cause to be investigated the ground or the charge upon which the notice is founded," the relevant clause of the constitution's article 47 says.

"The president shall have the right to appear and be represented during the investigation [of the charges], if any, and before the joint sitting."

"This process to investigate the charges can take months," said analysts.