Narendra Modi will be ousted from power in 2019 elections: Yashwant Sinha

Dubai: In recent years, India’s former finance minister Yashwant Sinha has emerged as the most vocal critic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Sinha, who until recently was part of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, last month filed a petition in Supreme Court accusing the Prime Minister of “criminal misconduct” in a $8 billion deal between India and France to purchase Rafale fighter aircraft.

Sinha was the country’s finance minister from 1998 to 2002 and also held the foreign portfolio from 2002 to 2004 in the Vajpayee Cabinet.

Since 2014, Sinha has attacked Modi for what he describes as “mishandling” of the economy, stifling democratic institutions and media. He has sought to puncture government claims of high growth rate and once said Indian economy was heading towards a hard landing under Modi.

Last week, he was in Dubai to attend alumni celebrations of Aligarh Muslim University’s foundation day. In an exclusive interview, Sinha predicted Modi will be ousted in parliamentary elections due early next year.

Below are the excerpts:

Sinha: If you look at the results of 2014, the BJP did extremely well in the Hindi heartland. If you take four of the largest states, Uttar Pradesh, I am counting Bihar-Jharkhand as one state and the fourth state is Maharashtra, these return the largest number of seats – 182 – and the BJP had a score of 145. They did extremely well and it was a better strike rate than ever.

That is the reason why the BJP, which was non-existent in many states, was able to get many seats on account of a better strike rate in the four states. Then, in the second category I will put states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Delhi where they scored hundred per cent.

So, in all these states if the Opposition parties get together then, as the by-polls have shown, it is going to be very different kind of results. My confidence is borne out of the fact that 2014 will not be repeated, the atmosphere today is very different than it was in 2014, people are disappointed… frustrated and angry. They will get far less number and won’t be able to form the government.

Sinha: I will tell you from my experience of the BJP, that’s a very misleading theory in the sense that the kind of grip that Modi and Amit Shah have over the party, it is impossible for anyone else to be elected even if the BJP goes down to 150 seats.

Sinha: RSS has no control over Modi. Modi has complete control over the RSS and the RSS will do as told by him.

Sinha: The crisis in India today is the crisis of democracy. What has happened in the last four-and-a-half years is that the institutions of democracy, the conventions of democracy, traditions of democracy have been completely given a go by.

Therefore, like it was in 1977, the first task of the new government should be to restore democracy in the country, the primacy of democratic institutions and ensure…

Sinha: I will be more specific. When I am talking about the institutions, let me begin with the Cabinet. Collective decision making has to be restored. In today’s government, it is one person who is making the decisions and most important decisions are not even shared with the minister in charge.

The senior-most ministers are unaware of decisions being taken relating to their own ministry! For instance, the Finance Minister — who is supposed to be very in with Modi and Shah — didn’t know about demonetisation.

The then defence minister Mr Parrikar did not know about the Rafale deal, he learnt about it from the media. I can talk about home and external affairs ministries where they are not kept in the loop and [when] decisions are taken they get to know about it from the media.

So, the collective decision making of the Cabinet and collective responsibility of the Cabinet doesn’t exist. Parliament has been taken for a ride! The budget this year was passed without one minute of discussion, vote of no confidence was not taken up… the government in violation of all the conventions made Aadhaar a money bill.

Then you take the Supreme Court… in Sabrimala case, the ruling party of the country led by its president is opposing [the court order], openly and calling people to revolt. The Election Commission, look at what is happening to Reserve Bank of India, look at what’s happening to the CBI? So, institutions which have played a vital role and most of all the media… the media has become completely pliant.

Sinha: They [media] might be because they are also greedy for the loaves and fishes but why should the media be made pliant? You know it, anyone who dared to oppose, not only oppose, be fare, be frank have been thrown out. Your namesake in the Hindustan Times… he had to go.

Sinha: Since 2014, he has not addressed a single press conference. Does the press in India raise it? Does somebody demand that he must face the media and answer questions? He has his ‘Man Ki Baat’. Then he gives one-one-interviews to anchors who are prepared to prostrate themselves before him.

It appears as if ‘Huzoor, Maalik if you permit, may I ask a question’. Why hasn’t he addressed the media or answered questions? That in itself exposes him completely. It shows that he is not willing to take a difficult question.

With Modi, it is just a one way [communication] and anyone in the media who dares to challenge him or bring some inconvenient facts to the notice of the people is immediately dismissed, his job is taken away. Therefore, the perception that his government is entirely free of corruption is because the incidents of corruption have not come into public domain. Even Rafale has taken three years come into public domain.

Sinha: There is absolutely no desire on part of the media. When Arun Shourie, Prashant Bhushan and I addressed the first press conference on Rafale at Press Club, I said: “I don’t know how many of you will report what we are saying.” After the press conference, one media person walked up to me aggressively and told me: “If I lose my job tomorrow, will you give me a job?” I had absolutely no answer to this question.

Sinha: We felt that there is a prima facie case for registration of FIR [first information report] and further investigation by the CBI. We first filed a complaint with the CBI. When we found that the CBI is not taking a decision after many day had passed, only then we approached the Supreme Court. The matter has been heard and we are waiting or an order.

Sinha: That’s exactly what I have been trying to explain to you. I watched the situation, listened to what people had to say and then I myself came to the conclusion that he is a threat to the democracy.

At that point of time, I decide to raise my voice despite the fact that I was in the same party. [Modi] thinks he is right and nobody else matters in the system. It was not like this during Vajpayee’s time.

GN: Are you disappointed that other senior BJP leaders, including Mr Advani have not spoken up.

Sinha: They should have spoken up, I am very surprised and shocked… that is a disappointment. I must confess to my disappointment because he [Advani] was a strong voice against Indira Gandhi’s emergency and everybody else who is part of the government has not spoken up.

Sinha: Obviously, he has been elected president… members of the Congress party believe that he is the best person to be the president and many believe he is the best person to be the prime minister. But that is not settled yet, that issue is not settled.

Sinha: I won’t say within the party but outside that issue is not yet settled and that is how it should be because… it is not a presidential election. We are a parliamentary democracy… and it is the right of the elected members to choose their leader.

Sinha: I will not answer that question because, one, it’s not fair, two, it's entirely premature to talk about it. That means you and I feel that he is the next prime minister and therefore we should discuss it. As I said, this question [of prime minister] is wide open as far as the opposition parties is concerned.

Sinha: I think that he is still to be tested, he has just taken over as the Congress president and future events will decide if he has the same or greater capabilities or not.

Sinha: Why should I share that with you?

Sinha: I made an announcement on April 21 this year. One, that I am leaving the BJP;l two, that I will not join any political party and, three, that I stand by my decision taken in 2014 that I will not contest elections.

Sinha: On the basis of the present circumstances, I have explained by decision but, as somebody said, if the facts change, what do you do.