Maharashtra elections: The tiger had the last laugh, will it now roar?

Yet today, the BJP is out of the political equation as the Sena and Sharad Pawar, 79, doughty Maratha warrior and chief of the NCP and the Congress party ,are trying to form the government in Maharashtra.

Thackeray in his “maha” (epic) battle with the BJP refused to blink and seemed to finally come of political age with a little help from Pawar. The humdinger of a political fight was like a vintage soap opera - messy break up followed by dramatic posturing, which finally went into a bout of “they are lying” (former chief minister of Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis) to “how dare he call me a liar” Thackeray.

For the record, this is the unlikeliest coupling in politics - Sena with Congress. Yet there are compelling reasons behind the partnership. Interim Congress president Sonia Gandhi gave her reluctant nod to the coupling after the Congress MLAs (sequestered in Jaipur to prevent BJP poaching) gave a written submission to her saying they not only wanted to support the Sena and NCP government but wished to be part of it. If Gandhi and the Congress high command had overruled the state unit on this it would have meant the end of the Congress party in Maharashtra.

Terms of engagement

All Gandhi could do was modify the terms of engagement with the Sena and work out a common minimum programme. The three parties are working on it and Thackeray said bitingly after president’s rule was imposed in Maharashtra that the BJP had ensured that they had enough time for it.

A senior leader privy to the negotiations told me: “Why are all health and hygiene warnings on ideological purity for the Opposition? Do all those shrieking about the Congress getting into bed with the Sena not call the BJP alliance with the PDP in Kashmir a master-stroke?”

Sharad Pawar, who seems to have won his grudge match with Shah, told Gandhi when he persuaded her to this unlikely alliance that “Modi and Shah had ensured that politics was not normal with all the investigative agencies being used against the Opposition as a force multiplier.”

Pawar told Gandhi, according to those privy to the serial calls between the two leaders, that the time had come to resist the BJP and if the Congress did not back the NCP and Sena now the party would be finished in Maharashtra.

A raid by income tax authorities on BMC corporators on Thursday seemed to be the opening gambit on Shah’s war on the Sena.

Pawar is the canniest politician in India and a master at negotiations. Pawar ensured that Thackeray, who had been in touch with him as political guide, did not blink in his battle with the BJP.

Thackeray who is a very soft spoken reticent politician unlike his fire-breathing father Bal Thackeray had also had enough of being taken for granted by Modi and Shah. He told his MLAs sequestered in a hotel that it was time to break the arrogance of Fadnavis and Shah.

Underneath was Thackeray’s realisation that the BJP had been cannibalising the Sena and his core Marathi vote. The Shiv Sena was originally a party of Maratha sub-regionalism aggressively promoting sons of the soil. The alliance with the BJP which lasted 30 years grafted Hindutva on the Maratha pride. But Shah’s zero sum game politics and growth at the expense of the Sena made Thackeray decide to end the alliance.

The BJP had already reduced Sena to a junior partner in the state and the fear of the same fate in the municipal corporation of Mumbai (richest corporation with a budget of Rupees 30,000 crores) a traditional Sena strength ensured that Thackeray walked. The BJP had indicated that the BMC was the next in its maximalist expansion in Maharashtra at the expense of the Sena. While the BJP vote has grown with each election the Sena’s vote share has not seen an increase.

Pawar counseling

Pawar counselled Thackeray to ask for the moon - rotational power share with all ministries and the chief ministers post shared. Pawar told his confidantes that Shah would never concede the top post despite an earlier assurance to Thackeray. Pawar was proved right.

Pawar who has been a four-time Chief minister of Maharashtra made an emotional pitch and told the voters that this was his last election. An Enforcement Directorate (ED) summons which he handled with old fashioned political smarts backfired on the BJP as it made Pawar look like a victim of what he termed Delhi rule. Leaders positioning themselves as victims always works in Indian (see Modi, multiple iterations) politics.

In any case as the BJP has emerged as the principal pole of Indian politics ideological clarity has blurred. The reactions of all the political players, including the Congress to the Supreme Court verdict in the Ram Mandir case tells you all you need to know about ideological purity in Indian politics. The Congress welcomed the decision to give the land for a temple to the Hindus.

The Opposition now seems to be driven by pragmatism - isolating the BJP seems to be the new goal. The return of Sonia Gandhi who is adept in alliance building as Congress president has also helped.

Of political significance is also the fact that the regional satraps of the Congress are doing a reset of their relationship with the fabled Congress high command. This was seen in both Haryana and Maharashtra where in the first case B.S. Hooda threatened a rebellion unless he was given command. In the Maharashtra saga a Congress MLA told me: “They (high command) did nothing to help me win the election so how can they now tell me not to ally with the Sena?”

So on balance, regionalism and Pawar are the undoubted victors of the “Maha match”. And the BJP, which fought the two state elections on the plank of the abrogation of Article 370 (removing Kashmir’s special status in the Indian union) will now have to cope with “normal” bread and butter issues such as the imploding economy.

The tiger then had the last word on the victory. Something about counting your chickens before they hatch as Modi and Shah did announcing victory. Sorry about the mangled metaphors.