Congress plans shrewd roadmap

The composition of the new council of ministers indicates a shrewdly designed political roadmap for the first half of this Lok Sabha's five-year term.

It bespeaks a desire to run this coalition along a middle path of accommodation and restrained maturity for the moment, while the dynamic young brigade of Congress MPs – potentially, the party's A-team – is held back for the next round, when the party would hope to win power on its own.

Not only Rahul Gandhi, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Sachin Pilot, Milind Deora and Naveen Jindal, even such dynamic veterans who have not been ministers before, such as Ambika Soni and Ahmed Patel, have been kept out of ministry.

The team that has been fielded comprises tried and tested veterans who can be trusted to rule competently, albeit without any winning political flourishes.

The younger MPs could be brought to the fore before the next general elections are called, so that Rahul Gandhi might lead the party back to power. However, there are indications that any such change of guard would not take place for at least three years.

Punjab assembly elections are scheduled in February 2007 and the continuance of Manmohan Singh in the Prime Minister's chair until then would help the party immensely.

That year's budget would follow on the heels of those elections and a new President would be elected that summer. The Gandhi family has always felt more comfortable with a President of its choosing in Rashtrapati Bhawan and so may not disturb this arrangement until then.

The summer of 2007 might mark a watershed, either through a major reshuffle or fresh elections. For the composition of the current council of ministers indicates that priority has been given to the important states that are due for assembly elections before Punjab.

The first of these is Maharashtra and the Congress' agenda seems to be to squeeze Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar rather than win the elections. This is borne out by the induction of the relatively lightweight Maratha, Prithviraj Chavan, as junior minister in the Prime Minister's Office and Shivraj Patil, another Maharashtrian antagonistic to Pawar, as Home Minister.

Pawar had split the Congress before the '99 Lok Sabha elections, arguing that the nation was unwilling to accept a foreigner as prime minister. A defeat of the Congress-NCP alliance in the state assembly would greatly reduce Pawar's strength. As for the Congress, it might actually gain from an anti-incumbency vote against a putative Shiv Sena-led government when Lok Sabha elections are called next. That perhaps is why no representative of the Republican Party of India, which has for years drawn substantial Dalit support in Maharashtra, has been included in the council. The biggest political challenge of 2005 is the Bihar assembly elections and the Congress has tried to shore up its prospects by inducting a dozen ministers from that state.

It can be sure that state satrap Laloo Prasad Yadav will not be able to dismiss them with just a tenth of the seats for, as things stand, he will as Railway Minister be negotiating with Sonia Gandhi, whom many see as the super prime minister. With a larger share of seats, the party would be able to strengthen its base in Bihar for the next Lok Sabha poll.

Three major states are due for assembly elections in 2006, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The Congress must tread cautiously in West Bengal and Kerala, where it faces its biggest crutch in Parliament, the Left. However, it appears determined to defeat Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalitha, for it has gone out of its way to accommodate the DMK and its other allies from that state.

So focussed is the Congress on its Tamil allies that it even took away the Shipping portfolio from its Andhra-based ally, the Telengana Rajya Samiti, to add to T.R. Balu's workload.

Having just won a thumping victory in Andhra, the Congress is evidently confident that it has plenty of time to adjust Andhra's aspirations. That is the logic that has guided it in ignoring the claims of other states that have just had assembly elections, such as Orissa and Chattisgarh.

The designers of the Congress' roadmap are evidently conscious of the caste sensibilities that affect Indian politics. The inclusion of three Jats, including Sis Ram Ola with cabinet rank, is clearly meant to woo back the Jats of Rajasthan, who shifted to the BJP in last November's assembly polls, and to wean over the Jats of Uttar Pradesh.

The exclusion of the Republic Party of India is not the only indicator that the Gandhi family aims to win back Dalit support. Meira Kumar, daughter of the late scheduled caste leader Jagjivan Ram, has been given charge of the Social Justice and Empowerment Ministry.

That was the ministry through which the Mandal Commission report, which galvanised the backward castes of north India, was implemented in 1990.

Ram Vilas Paswan, who then held that portfolio, is the most heavyweight Dalit leader in this ministry but has had to make do with a low profile ministry. Clearly, only those coalition partners that have a place on the Congress' roadmap, are to be accommodated.