Focus on Sri Lanka: Tigers on the run

Fears for the safety of hundreds of thousands of people trapped in Sri Lanka's war zone are rising as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) fight for survival against a resurgent Sri Lankan army.

Here are some scenarios of what might happen next in one of Asia's longest running wars:

Army's march to the sea

This month alone, soldiers have run the Tigers out of their self-proclaimed capital, the Jaffna Peninsula and the port of Mullaittivu, a major LTTE operations base. When hostilities were re-ignited in 2006, the rebels held 15,000 square km. Now, the army's commander, Lieutenant-General Sarath Fonseka, says they have only 300 square km of jungle and a diminishing stretch of the northeastern coast left.

Rebels lose strength

Many analysts say the rebels are down to about 2,000 capable fighters and have little future as a conventional force against an army that has been built up and armed for the sole purpose of defeating them, after suffering past losses. President Mahinda Rajapaksa has given his full backing to the military and the combat veterans behind its transformation, his brother Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Fonseka.

Civilians in the war zone

Aid agencies estimate there are about 250,000 Tamil refugees in grave danger in the shrinking war zone, and the International Committee of the Red Cross says hundreds have been killed in fire that struck hospitals.

Is India going to mediate?

No. Despite protests from Tamil politicians in India, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has made it clear he has no plans to stop Rajapaksa's war against a group his country lists as a terrorist organisation. Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee visited Colombo yesterday and made no mention of a truce but instead talked about Indian assistance in post-war reconstruction.

Risk to Rajapaksa?

Not really. His mainly rural power base has been largely shielded from economic woes through populist budgets and development projects. Rajapaksa is also counting on a flood of post-war reconstruction money to come in after fighting ends. That might be complicated by three violent attacks on the media this month, which have angered many donor countries – who have yet to apply the only real leverage they have: Money.

Prabhakaran: The most feared rebel

Velupillai Prabhakaran, the fearless LTTE leader, was born on November 26, 1954. Known to his fellow members as Thambi – younger brother, Prabhakaran is wanted by Interpol for terrorism, murder, organised crime and conspiracy. Even in India, the LTTE has been banned and has been linked to the assassination of former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. During an interview, Prabhakaran stated that the LTTE was not yet ready to disarm unless a separate Tamil homeland was established. He is on the run and his whereabouts are not known. Agencies

Did you know?

The LTTE's Black Tigers are known to deploy suicide attacks, including suicide bombing. They pioneered the use of suicide bomb vests. According to Jane's Information Group, between 1980 and 2000, the LTTE carried out a total of 168 suicide attacks causing damage on military targets.