WASHINGTON: The bitter battle over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court has exacerbated America’s political divide and left many Americans emotionally raw. It’s also given new definition to the high stakes of November’s election.
Until now, the fight for control of Congress has largely been viewed as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s first two years in office. But the turmoil surrounding Kavanaugh has transformed the midterms into something bigger than Trump, with implications that could endure long after his presidency.
The election is suddenly layered with charged cultural questions about the scarcity of women in political power, the handling of sexual assault allegations, and shifting power dynamics that have left some white men uneasy about their place in American life. Both parties contend the new contours of the race will energize their supporters in the election’s final stretch. And both may be right. Here is what it means for the mid-term elections which are exactly a month away:
Women who live in suburbs, where some of the most competitive House races will be contested, have trended away from Republicans in recent polls and may be energised by the Kavanaugh debate.
Who stands to gain the most?
Republicans may benefit most in the short term. Until now, party leaders including Trump have struggled to energise GOP voters, even with a strong economy to campaign on.
The president’s middling job approval rating and independent voters’ disdain for his constant personal attacks have been a drag on GOP candidates. But Republican operatives say internal polling now shows Kavanaugh’s acrimonious confirmation has given the party a much-needed boost.
Republican voters now view Democrats as overzealous partisans following the public testimony by Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford, who accused the judge of trying to rape her while they were both in high school.
Why are the Democrats in a weak spot despite the outcry?
“The Democrat strategy to capitalise on the ‘Me Too’ movement for the political purposes backfired on them,” Republican strategist Alice Stewart said of Democrats.
“The fact that they were willing to use Dr Ford’s story that was uncorroborated to launch character assassinations on Judge Kavanaugh did not sit well with voters. A lot of people looked at this as a bridge too far.” The surge in GOP enthusiasm could recalibrate a political landscape that was tilting toward Democrats throughout the summer.
Though Democrats still maintain an advantage in competitive House races, the past two weeks appear to have shifted momentum in the fight for the Senate majority back to the GOP.
Is it possible the mood of supporter base will swing again?
With just over four weeks until Election Day, there is still time for the dynamics to shift again. And the political headwinds from the Kavanaugh confirmation are unlikely to blow in just one direction. But in North Dakota, Republican Representative Kevin Cramer has pulled comfortably ahead of Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp, who voted no on Kavanaugh.
GOP operatives say they’re also seeing renewed Republican interest in states like Wisconsin, where Democratic candidates for both Senate and governor have been polling strong. “It’s turned our base on fire,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Saturday, moments after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh.
To be sure, some tightening in the race was likely inevitable this fall. Wavering voters often move back toward their party’s candidates as Election Day nears, and most of the competitive Senate races are in states that voted for Trump by a significant margin.
How are Democrats handling the aftermath?
To Democrats, Kavanaugh’s assent to the Supreme Court in spite of decades-old sexual misconduct allegations will only deepen the party’s pull with female voters, including independents and moderates who may have previously voted for Republicans.
Democrats point to the flood of women who have spoken out about their own assaults following Ford’s testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Party operatives also believe the optics of the all-male GOP panel that presided over the hearing struck a chord with female voters. “Kavanaugh’s confirmation will leave a lot of outraged and energised women in its wake,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster.
Why are women so crucial to the midterm election results?
Women are playing a key role in the first midterm election since Trump’s 2016 victory. Fuelled by his statements about women and the #MeToo movement, a record number of women are running for Congress this year.
Women who live in suburbs, where some of the most competitive House races will be contested, have trended away from Republicans in recent polls and may be further energised by the Kavanaugh debate.
What will be the Republican strategy going forward?
Trump remains the fall campaign’s biggest wildcard. White House advisers and Republican senators are encouraging him to keep Kavanaugh in the spotlight in the campaign’s final weeks.
But they’re well aware that the president often struggles to stay on message and can quickly overshadow his political victories with new controversies. Given that, Stewart said Republicans can’t assume that this burst of momentum will sustain itself through Election Day. “The question is whether this is the October surprise or the calm before the storm,” Stewart said.
