Lettr from Chennai: BJP for piggyback ride on Jaya party

There is frantic activity in the newly-formed grand alliance, the "Progressive Front" comprising the DMK, the Congress, the Left parties, Muslim organisations, and the MDMK and PMK.

Last week Communist party leaders and State Congress President G K Vasan were among the 'allies' who talked to DMK chief Karunanidhi. His son and heir apparent M K Stalin and former Central Minister T R Baalu have held meetings with Sonia Gandhi in New Delhi. Sonia is expected to come to Chennai after the election dates are announced for a formal meeting with Karunanidhi.

The 'Dalit' parties headed by Dr. Krishnaswamy's Puthiya Thamizhagam (PT) and Thirumavalan's Dalit Panthers Party are in a quandary.

The dalits have traditionally been bitterly opposed to the 'Vanniars' represented by the Pattali Makkal Katchi of Dr Ramadoss which is part of the 'Progressive Front'. The PT is strong in the southern disgtricts while Thirumavalan has a base in the north and north east of the state. Their problem is that neither the Front nor Jayalalitha are in a mood to give them any seat to contest. Quite a bit depends on which side these parties are prepared to vote for as the Dalits are a major vote bank.

At present they are unrepresented in Parliament. Hectic parleys are on to decide what they should do. Karunanidhi has stated that even if no seat is given to them to contest, Krishnaswamy will have a place in his heart – and that is not any solace to the Puthiya Thamizhagam.

Another group that seems rudderless are the BJP. The state BJP seems to have finally made up its mind that it cannot ride piggy back with either Dravidian party this time round. But BJP's State Party Chief C P Radhakrishnan has not yet given up hopes of striking an alliance with the AIADMK despite total silence from the latter to their overtures.

But Jayalalitha, who at her month -long mass contact programme with her party cadres – which will continue till January 31 – is at her ambivalent best.

In the course of her meeting with her cadres – a process which started on December 19 – Jayalalitha has brushed aside the prospects of any alliance with other parties. She is all set to contest all the 40 seats (including Pondicherry). She has explained to her cadres that the alliances with other parties like the Congress, TMC, MDMK and PMK had only led to the benefit of those parties. At the Centre, she said "while ministers belonging to other states were working for the good of their own states, these Tamil Nadu ministers totally forgot Tamil Nadu.

Talking about the DMK, MDMK and PMK, which were partners in the NDA, she said that the main effort of the leaders of these parties was to "extract the maximum for as long as you can and then sever your ties". All these leaders, she said would be reduced to ashes in the coming elections like "straw-filled effigies".

Yesterday, while presiding over the MGR anniversary celebrations at the party office here, she said that she was not interested in commenting on the prospects of the AIADMK forming an alliance with the BJP. She told the press that they would be kept informed of further developments.

Things will become clearer once the election dates are announced and contours of any alliances accepting the fronts led by the BJP and the Congress become evident. As far as Tamil Nadu is concerned, indications are that for all practical purposes there will be straight fights between the AIADMK and the 'Progressive Front' in all the 40 constituencies.

Jayalalithaa may show her hand after the election results are announced. Depending on how many seats she wins, she will decide strategy for the future. If, as she apparently expects, she manages to win some 20-25 seats, she might even stake claim for a deciding role at the Centre. Otherwise she still has the option to back the better side with support from outside or even an alliance. Any way, all this is in the future.

In the meantime she is fighting other more immediate battles. The issue over the transfer of the 'Disproportionate Wealth' cases out of Chennai to Karnataka is hanging fire and the Karnataka government has assured the Supreme Court that it is fully prepared to try the case in a Special court dispassionately.

Equally, the question of the alleged improper arrest and detention of Vaiko, and others for political reasons is awaiting judgement by the Review Committee even as eight MDMK men have been released on bail.