Learning a lesson or two from the Lebanese conflict

As the Palestinian-Israeli fight continues and the occupation in Iraq flummoxes observers, another place in the Middle East suffers more quietly, yet no less relevantly. That country is Lebanon and the political wasteland it has become. Lebanon is a microcosm of the region and many lessons can be drawn from what Lebanon has learned - and not learned - through war and "peace".

Sectarianism

Micro - The Lebanese political landscape is characterised by division according to sectarian, feudal or ideological rifts.

Who one belongs to has proven more important than national identity, or any other overriding factor, and the result has been either war or a state of bickering interests where internal division dissolves any constructive purpose Macro - As Lebanese are divided politically into those who support Hariri, Berri, Nasrallah (and previously into Christian, Druze, or Shiite militias), the Middle East as a whole is divided into bickering states where any sense of regional belonging is out the window: Israel vs. any number of Arabs, Syria vs. Jordan, Iraq vs. Saudi, Part of Lebanon vs. Syria, etc. The region, where each belongs, always comes last.

War

Micro - Divisions over Lebanon's direction, especially over the issue of the Palestinian cause, led to the civil war of 1975-1990. Every group fought the other in a matrix of blood. The fight went on until everyone was spent. The war was devastating, as most conflicts are, but also fruitless - as in fact few conflicts are. The Lebanese war went on for 15 years and resulted in….nothing, except the further division of the country.

Macro - The Middle East has been at war since 1948. At least five Arab-Israeli wars, two Initifadahs, three Gulf Wars, and may other battles such as Egypt in Yemen, Lebanon's war, Kurds in Iraq… . Divisions over identity and interests have fuelled these wars and the result has been nothing except more war - and further division of the region.

Peace

Micro - Lebanon now enjoys a kind of peace - at least for the time being. But, it is the peace of the exhausted, no one is victor, everyone is vanquished. Time passed, Dubai rose, and Beirut can now no longer regain its former glory.

The Lebanese lost 15 years to war and did not achieve peace, meaning a durable accommodation. The civil war settled nothing, except to demonstrate in geography what was already there in psychology.

Macro - The Middle East may also find the peace of the exhausted, whether now or in the future. There will be no victors because no side can crush the other decisively. There are too many people and too many large bombs involved. If exhaustion sets in between Israel and the Arabs, it will likely be temporary, for neither side is pursuing greater purpose, even in war.

Foreign forces

Micro - In an intertwined world, the interested will intervene in areas of weakness and confusion. This is done to take advantage and to control: Syria is in Lebanon for both reasons. It filled the void because political nature also abhors a vacuum.

The presence of Syrian forces and "influence" over Lebanon is highly problematic for the Lebanese. It breeds resentment, no matter what politicians say, and yet there is also a lingering fear: "What would happen if the Syrians left?"

Macro - America is now in Iraq and occupying for both advantage and control. There is resentment among Iraqis about their presence but also a question: "Where would Iraq now be without them?" The American presence in Iraq and the Middle East is likely to grown due to the chaos and lack of direction in the region, as Syria's is in Lebanon - for both advantage and control.

Lack of direction

Micro - Many Lebanese still blame outsiders for their civil war (Israelis, Syrians, Palestinians, Saudis, Americans - the list is long) and have have not come to terms with their role and responsibility. The Lebanese war was fuelled by a basic disagreement over how much to support the Palestinian cause driven by a difference of identity.

Some Lebanese feel they are bridge between East and West and so belong less in the East, others feel they are very much one part of a larger Arab equation. What is a fact is that there was no binding political direction in the country, whether that is law, national identity or even an overriding leader. A lack of direction plus many conflicted identities will lead to war, exhaustion, and foreign forces.

Macro - The Middle East is increasingly suffering from a lack of political direction as well. Once, battles were framed in the designs of Pan-Arabism and Israel's survival but that has faded since 1967. Today, wars and conflicts are marked by a directionless compass. No one knows where Sharon wants to take Israel, above all the Israelis.

Arab leaders have not shown any capacity to define where they wish to take their countries or the region. Instead, it is the endless tit for tat based on difference - with no overriding regional goal, whether that is peace, accommodation, or even the fixed and permanent victory of one side or view.

Victory by any side in the Middle East is however about as likely and meaningful as it is in Lebanon. The greater likelihood is an endless fight until exhaustion, recuperation and then…more fight.

Lands with much division and a lack of greater direction will suffer the fate of Lebanon; that country is a microcosm and a mirror for the Middle East. Those concerned with the fate of the region would pay heed to what has happened to that unfortunate country.

The writer is a former UN and Canadian diplomat, a commentator on Middle East and international affairs.