Hope and misery at threshold of New Year

The blessed month of Ramadan is almost over; across the world, the Eid will be a time for happiness. For other faiths too, this will soon be a time for festivities. And a New Year beckons. There should be much to look forward to. Yet in looking out to the wider world, there is little to generate a feel-good factor.

The Middle East is in the grip of fear and anger, and the Washington peace talks are unlikely to provide relief. Despite all the evidence that sanctions bring only misery to ordinary people, the UN has imposed them on Afghanistan. Having thus acted to totally impoverish the Afghans, who have had to endure enough grief as it is, it now plans to do the same to the Liberians. Elsewhere in Africa, civil war continues in Congo, Angola, Sierra Leone and Sudan.

In Europe, ETA's terror campaign against Spain continues unabated; in Northern Ireland, the IRA's continued refusal to abandon its arms threatens to bring down the peace process there; and for ordinary people across the continent, mad cow disease brings fears about the food they eat.

Meanwhile, in Asia, Mongo-lia faces a disastrous winter, Beijing remains in militant mood over Taiwan, the Phili-ppines is in crisis over its president, and Indonesia over its inability to confront separatism. For countless millions, the immediate prospects are at best miserable, at worst terrifying.

Yet there are causes for optimism: the rapprochement between North and South Korea continues apace, with military officials currently working out ways to reopen transport links closed half a century ago; Pakistan's partial troop withdrawal in Kashmir has eased tensions with India; there is peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea; and Somalia's transitional government is putting down firm roots.

But perhaps one of the brightest causes for satisfaction is the transformation in Yugoslavia. Not only has the Butcher of Belgrade been overthrown, but the Serbian people have demonstrated quite clearly that rather than goose-marching across the Balkans, that they much prefer to live in peaceful and prosperous coexistence with their neighbours. Certainly, hardly a week passes without yet another sign of Yugoslavia's reintegration into civilised society; recently, it was confirmed that Yugoslavia is to rejoin the IMF, having been thrown out eight years ago.

And the fears that October's revolution in Belgrade would prove half-baked and that the Serbs under the new government would refuse to confront their guilt may prove to have been misplaced. Last week, three Serb soldiers were jailed by a court-martial in Belgrade for murdering an elderly Albanian couple during the Kosovo war. Also, an army court in Nis sentenced nine Serbian military policemen and a lawyer to prison for extorting money from Kosovar prisoners in their care.

I believe, these are significant developments. Under Milosevic, such trials would never have happened. That they have – and the murder trial represents the first time that a Serbian court has cooperated with the UN to uncover war crimes – indicates the scale of change in Belgrade.

We still await the day when President Kostunica puts Milosevic in the dock – something he has been unwilling to do so far. But there is now good reason to believe that he will.

Let us therefore hope that the wheels of justice may turn slowly in Yugoslavia.