Academic seeks role for GCC in US-Iran talks

Abu Dhabi: The UAE and other GCC countries should be made to feel like partners in talks over the US-Iran nuclear dispute, an Iranian academic said on Wednesday.

"GCC countries should be made partners in talks over the US-Iranian dispute over Tehran's nuclear programme and, if necessary, the American administration can offer the Gulf Cooperation Council nuclear guarantees," said Dr Mahmoud Monshipouri, an assistant professor at San Francisco State University's department of international relations.

Monshipouri was giving a lecture entitled "The US-Iran relations: embracing a new realism" at the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research.

The military option to prevent Iran from going on with its nuclear programme "has fallen", he said.

Monshipouri said it was too early to predict which approach the Obama administration would take while resolving disputes with Iran but said the policy of avoiding direct diplomacy with Tehran adopted by the Bush administration had fallen by the wayside.

Policy options

"Nonetheless, it is still difficult to determine whether the Iranian leadership will give the Obama administration a very sympathetic hearing," he said.

He identified three potential policy options he felt the Obama administration could pick from while dealing with Iran.

"The Obama administration's preference for direct negotiation with Iran may revolve around three options. The first is to continue a policy of carrot and stick by pushing for further sanctions on the Iranian economy in general and its leaders' assets in particular, while at the same time offering Iran rewards of strategic significance.

The second option is to engage in a "grand bargain" with Iran, in which all regional issues will be the subject of negotiation.

The third option is to approach the negotiation issue by issue in order to build mutual confidence while paving the way for further negotiations on high-profile issues.

Monshipouri said the third option appeared to be the most likely strategy to be adopted by the Obama administration.

"It is far from clear whether the old carrot-and-stick approach will work effectively at this point. Likewise, the option of a "grand bargain" may face domestic constraints in so far as the internal politics of both countries are concerned. The problem with the issue-by-issue approach is that some issues cannot be addressed in isolation. All these options entail potential pitfalls and opportunities. It is difficult to say whether these strategies would work, but there is good reason to think that the most likely approach may be the third option."