Analysis: Bin Laden continues to haunt the U.S., allies

The latest Osama bin Laden audiotape broadcast by the Qatar-based Al Jazeera TV on Tuesday is the first evidence since December last year that the world's most wanted man is alive.

In the audiotape, bin Laden spoke about recent events while hailing the attacks on U.S. soldiers in Kuwait, the strike on the French warship in Yemen, the bombing of the Bali nightclub in Indonesia, and the hostage-taking in a Moscow theatre by Chechens. It proved that the statement was recently recorded.

On October 6, Al Jazeera broadcast another bin Laden audiotape in which he threatened to strike at economic interests of the U.S. in case it continued its "injustice and hostility" toward Arabs and Muslims. That statement didn't solve the mystery of whether he was alive or dead because it failed to refer to any recent happening.

The bin Laden videotapes telecast by Al Jazeera late last year and during early 2002 was the last time the world saw and heard the Al Qaida founder.

As he kept quiet after that, there was speculation that he may have been killed in the U.S. bombing in Tora Bora near Jalalabad, eastern Afghanistan, last December. There were also reports, including one based on a statement by President General Pervez Musharraf, that bin Laden may have died due to lack of proper treatment and dialysis for his damaged kidneys.

But the Saudi-born bin Laden appears to have proved everybody wrong.

His survival instincts have enabled him to evade the biggest manhunt in history. In a region infested by hostile military forces led by the U.S., it goes to his credit to stay alive and free despite being tracked down by thousands of Western, Afghan and Pakistani soldiers, militiamen and informers and coming under surveillance by the most sophisticated technology.

His renewed challenge to America and its allies shows that he isn't finished even after suffering deadly body blows aimed by the U.S. at him and his Al Qaida network. By threatening to strike at the U.S. and countries allied to it, bin Laden seems to be daring President George W. Bush to fulfil his boastful commitment to get him 'dead or alive'.

Having targeted him as the world's most dangerous terrorist mastermind, the U.S. government would remain under pressure to kill or capture him before it can claim victory in its war on terrorism.

Having met the Al Qaida chief twice in 1998, this correspondent was almost convinced that the voice in the latest audiotape broadcast on Al Jazeera TV resembled that of bin Laden.

It was the same fatigued voice one had heard, audiotaped and videotaped in the summer of 1998 in Khost and later in December near Kandahar. He was as usual fluent in Arabic and the flow of words was rhythmic, which is a hallmark of the speech of the poetic bin Laden.

If it is not bin Laden's voice, it must be a master mimic who has managed to copy him so well.
Latest reports from the U.S. indicated that American intelligence experts after carefully listening to the bin Laden audiotape concluded that it was his voice.

Once the U.S. government is convinced that its public enemy number one is alive, one would have to expect a stepped up, and possibly violent, campaign to get bin Laden.

It would primarily focus on the border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan because there are already reports that the bin Laden audiotape may have been delivered to Al Jazeera TV in Pakistan.

The U.S. failure to hunt bin Laden may prompt it to intensify pressure on Islamabad to help in capturing a man it itself was unable to nab after a year-long campaign.

New military sweeps across Afghanistan's Pashtun-populated areas bordering Pakistan, which would invariably cause bloodshed and fuel anti-U.S. resentment, are also expected.

With bin Laden apparently still able to guide Al Qaida, the threat of further attacks against the U.S. and its allies would trigger insecurity worldwide. He would continue to haunt the U.S. as long as he lives and there is no guarantee that the threat to the West would recede once he is eliminated.