Dubai: Last year’s winner Cavalryman is the obvious favourite, having won his prep race with such ease. This game stayer impressed when outclassing Star Empire four weeks ago and the boys in blue clearly have another chance of winning the Gold Cup. In his younger days, Cavalryman was placed in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), and he has brushed shoulders with better horses than today’s rivals. Unless more rain makes the ground testing, he is the one to beat — but he is a hot favourite at short odds and not much fun to tip, so I am going with a longshot instead.

NOW WE CAN looks interesting in this stamina test. Like Cavalryman, he has been competitive in high class races over shorter distances, most recently when beating smart rivals over 1900 metres in France three weeks ago. Now We Can came with a determined finish to gain a narrow win over Mortga, with Zazou third and ‘Sheema’ contender Cirrus des Aigles back in fourth. A winner of 6 of his 10 races to date, Now We Can was beaten less than two lengths by JOSHUA TREE in last year’s Canadian International. Joshua Tree made racing history then, winning the race for a third time, and he is tough, but Now We Can is likely to improve and he can turn the tables this time. He won over 2900 metres in last year when he also landed Group 2 over 2400 meters. Now We Can will stay the Gold Cup trip, and he would not have a problem with soft ground.

SEISMOS, representing Germany, is another to have proved himself in shorter races against better horses, and he must also be considered. He didn’t have much to beat when winning his prep race at Neuss last month, but he powered home by 9 lengths, looking like a horse ready to improve this year. If he does, he has a great chance here. His best performances of last season makes him one of the most accomplished runners in the lineup, and how the bookmakers can have him as big as 25-1 is hard to understand. Seismos also ran in the Canadian International, staying on well at the finish to take third, and he had previously won the Grosser Preis von Bayern (G1) by 4 lengths and finished second to champion Novellist in the Grosser Preis von Baden (G1) at home. Don’t be fooled by the fact that Seismos finished last in this event 12 months ago. That was an off day and he is a much better horse now.

SONGCRAFT is also worth a look, having so nearly managed to hold off his stable companion (and Sheema runner) Excellent Result in the Dubai City Of Gold (G2) three weeks ago. Already a winner at Meydan this year, Songcraft was a good runner-up in one of the best staying handicaps in England last year. He is in top form, he promises to stay well, and he gets Mickael Barzalona in the saddle.

 

- The author is a thoroughbred form expert and editor of www.stabell.co.uk