T20 World Cup semi-final: Does India have the edge over England?

Dubai: India are set to face England in a blockbuster T20 World Cup semi-final on Thursday at the iconic Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai.

This will be the third successive edition in which the two sides clash in the semi-finals, having previously met at the same stage in 2022 and 2024.

From the past two World Cups, the winner of the England vs India semi-final clash has gone on to win the trophy.

In 2022, England knocked India out in the last four before going on to beat Pakistan in the final to claim the title. Two years later, the script flipped. Under the leadership of Rohit Sharma, India defeated England in the 2024 semi-final and carried that momentum into the final, where they overcame South Africa in Barbados to lift the trophy.

Former India all-rounder Mohammad Kaif believes the toss could prove decisive in Mumbai — though not for the usual reasons.

Traditionally, teams winning the toss at Wankhede prefer to bowl first because dew under lights often makes chasing easier. However, Kaif pointed out that the current pitch is behaving differently.

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He noted that unlike at Eden Gardens, where dew significantly impacted games, the Wankhede surface has shown consistent turn from the outset. The ball has gripped and spun throughout matches, meaning dew may not neutralise spin as much as expected. Even teams chasing competitive totals have struggled, suggesting batting might not get easier later in the evening.

That raises an intriguing question: will the captain winning the toss still opt to field first, or could batting first be the smarter call?

England have played six T20Is at Wankhede, winning three and losing three. India have featured in seven T20Is at the venue, winning five. Notably, India have not lost a T20I here since December 2017. Their only defeats in Mumbai came against the West Indies cricket team in 2016 and England in 2012.

The two sides have met twice in the shortest format at this ground, sharing one win apiece.

In 14 of the 16 T20Is played at the venue, the team winning the toss chose to field first. The average first-innings score stands at 177. The last meeting between India and England at Wankhede was a one-sided affair. India piled up 247, powered by a blistering 135 from Abhishek Sharma, who struck 13 sixes. England were bowled out for just 97 in reply.

India’s defeat to South Africa earlier in the tournament was a setback, but it provided an opportunity to regroup.

Though not entirely convincing against Zimbabwe and West Indies, India did enough to reach the semi-finals. However, conceding 195 and 184 in those matches — while taking only 10 wickets combined — suggests their bowling unit has room for improvement. But their batting depth remains formidable and has consistently delivered.

England have lost just once in the tournament but have not looked dominant. Much of their progress has been driven by all-rounder Will Jacks, who has repeatedly bailed the team out with crucial contributions.

Batting at No 7, Jacks has often had to rescue England from precarious situations. While his performances have been invaluable, England would prefer their top order to shoulder more responsibility heading into such a high-stakes encounter.

Mumbai is expected to enjoy warm, clear conditions on Thursday evening. Temperatures should hover around 27°C, with no rain forecast. Light northwesterly winds and humidity around 60 per cent are anticipated — ideal conditions for cricket.

India: Sanju Samson, Jasprit Bumrah

England: Phil Salt, Will Jacks

India: Suryakumar Yadav (c), Abhishek Sharma, Tilak Varma, Sanju Samson, Shivam Dube, Ishan Kishan, Hardik Pandya, Arshdeep Singh, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj, Varun Chakravarthy, Kuldeep Yadav, Axar Patel, Washington Sundar, Rinku Singh.

England: Harry Brook (c), Rehan Ahmed, Jofra Archer, Tom Banton, Jacob Bethell, Jos Buttler (wk), Sam Curran, Liam Dawson, Ben Duckett, Will Jacks, Jamie Overton, Adil Rashid, Phil Salt, Josh Tongue, Luke Wood.