Asia Cup 2025: Pakistan, Sri Lanka in pitched battle for survival

It will be a battle for survival as Pakistan, smarting from their six-wicket defeat against India, take on Sri Lanka, who too lost their opening Super Four match against Bangladesh by four wickets. While a setback in today’s match in Abu Dhabi may not be the end of the road, it will definitely take matters out of the losing side’s hands, as they will then have to rely on other results going their way, but more on that later.

For today’s match, both teams will be desperately seeking to reverse their fortunes in order to get their campaign back on track. As things stand now, Sri Lanka have a better net run rate compared to Pakistan – after having only been narrowly beaten by Bangladesh – so for Salman Ali Agha’s side, a win – preferably a big one – will go a long way in resurrecting their chances of making the Asia Cup final.

Against India on Sunday, despite their batters doing a decent job and putting up a fighting total, the bowlers failed to put any kind of pressure in the Powerplay overs, letting India get off to an absolute flyer. Sri Lanka too posted a similar total to Pakistan, which Bangladesh overhauled with just one ball to spare.

With the Super Four stage poised on a knife’s edge, here are the possible scenarios that can play out…

With two matches to go for both Pakistan and Sri Lanka, a win today will give them a new lease of life, especially for the latter. As things stand, Bangladesh hold the key in more ways than one. Having won their first match, The Tigers can dream of beating both India and Pakistan, thus tearing up the form book and turning the qualification scenario upside down. In that unlikely but possible scenario, a Sri Lanka win thereafter against India in the last match – assuming they defeat Pakistan today – will knock both India and Pakistan out and all of that without even having to refer to net run rates!

But, given the form India are in, it is more likely that they will beat both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and romp into the final. This probable scenario gives Sri Lanka all the more reason to up their game and win against Pakistan, for a loss would realistically end their campaign. As for Pakistan, a win would put them in good stead for the dream final against India if everything else goes according to the form book and there are no nasty surprises elsewhere. If they lose, and then beat Bangladesh, while India win all their matches, the second finalist will then be decided on net run rate as the three teams will all finish with one win each.

The loss against Bangladesh would have surprised many, given how well Sri Lanka played in the Group stages, while Pakistan will take heart from their batting performance against India. Having said that, Charith Asalanka’s side have already played two matches at the Zayed Cricket Stadium – against Bangladesh and Afghanistan – and given that they beat both, The Lions will hold a slight edge going into today’s match. Pakistan, though, are an unpredictable side, and can conjure up magic when things fall into place. Their record in Abu Dhabi is a good one, winning seven of their nine T20 matches with three of them coming against Sri Lanka.

Pathum Nissanka and Sahibzada Farhan lead the batters in the two sides, having scored 146 and 132 runs, respectively. However, it the strike rates that make for interesting reading. While the Sri Lankan opener has gone about his business at nearly 150, the Pakistan opener has managed a pedestrian strike rate of 100 and this could be a key factor between the sides.

As for the bowlers, Sri Lanka have been more penetrative with three of their bowlers in the top 8 list, scalping 16 wickets among them, with opening bowler Nuwan Thushara claiming 6. In contrast, Pakistan’s premier pacer Shaheen Shah Afridi has just managed 3 wickets so far, compounding their woes.

Nevertheless, this match has all the ingredients for a high-stakes battle that promises to go down to the wire.