Will UAE gold prices drop if US President Trump strikes trade deals?

Dubai: Gold prices have started the week under pressure in what will be a crucial few days for bullion and global markets. That’s because there is the July 9 deadline imposed by US President Trump to key trading partners to come up with a deal – or face the full weight of import tariffs.

If key US partners do arrive at some understanding with the US, that could cool off gold prices. If not, expect more volatility. (It was the announcement of steep US trade tariffs earlier this year that set the ball rolling for gold to push through to $3,300-, $3,400- and, briefly, $3,500 an ounce, all within the first six months of 2025.)

So, the coming days will hinge on what President Trump has to say - and why it’s important for the gold and jewellery trade and shoppers. (Trump has already been warning of an 'extra 10% tariff' on those nations striking deals with the BRICS grouping.)

The Dubai gold price should drop from the current Dh372.25 a gram for 22K, and if early trends this morning are on track, then shoppers are looking at something under Dh370, according to market sources.

“If the US says a deal has been struck, the Dubai gold price could come down to Dh365 a gram,” said a gold retailer. “Even lower.

“Because the main reasons why gold’s been sticking to Dh350 plus levels is because of uncertainty about the US economy and, two, the tariff situation.

“If the tariff crisis eases, that should lead to a drop in gold prices by at least Dh10.”

This weekend saw a drop in sales at jewellery stores, sources add, given the Dh372.25 price tag. Even the summer promotions and DSS gold raffles didn't prove tempting enough, they add.

"The weekend before, shoppers were getting Dh365 a gram and they will always make price comparisons," said a retailer. "The Dh370 plus price continues to be a mental block for UAE gold shoppers."

Which is why a US trade deal, or at least some form of it, could be just what gold needs right now...