Challenges, opportunities of population surge

Freshly available statistics point to steady population growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, thereby posing more challenges to decision makers engaged in planning.

Recently released projections by QNB (Qatar National Bank) Capital put combined population of the six-nation grouping at 46.8 million in 2011, and set to grow to 49.8 million in 2013.

Yet, these statistics differ materially from those projected by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) only a few years ago. The EIU's survey put GCC's population figure at 41.4 million in 2010 which set to increase to 47.5 million in 2015 and 53.4 million in 2020.

According to the QNB Capital study, the total population of GCC countries should approach the 50-million mark by 2013 on the back of steady growth, notably above the projections made by the other research.

Based on the QNB Capital survey, GCC's compounded average growth rate is estimated at 3.2 per cent for the period 2009-2013, way above global averages. The world population grew by 1.1 per cent in 2011, with some European countries in particular registering negative growth.

Sharp growth

The notable population rise partly reflects sharp growth in expatriate numbers whose share in the total has increased from 37.8 per cent in 2004 to 47.8 in 2011 and to 48.4 per cent in 2013.

The material high growth generates solid demand for foreign workers, who contribute to and benefit from sustained economic development in the region.

Not surprisingly, the same source puts population growth levels for nationals and expatriates at 2.4 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively. Certainly, it is extraordinary to see expatriates growing at a higher pace compared to locals, in turn a reflection of open economic practices of the GCC countries.

In fact, the presence of expatriates stands behind the rising share of the UAE and Qatar in total GCC population levels. The share of the UAE in GCC's population is expected to grow sharply from 11.3 per cent in 2004 to 18.2 per cent in 2013. Qatar's share is projected to grow from 2.4 per cent to 3.7 per cent in the same period. Understandably, the changes reflect business conditions and thereby the demand for expatriates in both the UAE and Qatar. In essence, Qatar has replaced Bahrain as the fifth most populated GCC country after Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Oman.

Still, Saudi Arabia is seeing its share of total GCC population declining from 68 per cent in 2004 to about 61 per cent in 2013 due to faster population growth in the UAE and Qatar. In reality, Saudi Arabia and the UAE comprise more than three quarters of total GCC population, partly reflecting their economic weight in the region.

Interestingly, expatriates make the majority of population in four GCC countries, namely 87 per cent each in the UAE and Qatar, 69 per cent in Kuwait and 52 per cent in Bahrain.

Minority at home

Bahrain's case partly reflects the providing of employment for expatriates in public security establishments. Much to the credit of GCC countries, not many countries elsewhere are noted for the situation of the locals being a minority in the total population.

The differences in statistics point to the need to have reliable studies about demographic trends across GCC countries.

This is vital for planning for infrastructure such as utilities and road network as well as essential services like clinics and schools in order to maintain global standards.

Certainly, all numbers count and all people matter.

The writer is a Member of Parliament in Bahrain.