US tariffs still hurt key air cargo routes, with India most directly hit

Dubai: The recent rise in US tariffs on Indian goods is beginning to show up in global air cargo patterns.

According to data from WorldACD, shipments from India to the United States have declined consistently since the 50% tariffs came into effect on August 27.

These declines come after a surge in late August, when exporters moved goods ahead of the tariff deadline.

The fall in India-to-US traffic is notable because flows had been higher earlier this year, partly as US importers diversified sourcing away from China. Under the new tariff regime, tonnages in the first two weeks of September were 13% and 10% lower year on year.

India-to-Europe traffic has been less affected. Volumes were up compared with last year through early September, although they dipped slightly in mid-month.

The wider Middle East and South Asia region has also seen lower volumes to the US. Shipments from Dubai in early September were more than one-third below average July and August levels. By contrast, flows from Dubai to Europe proved more resilient, despite being somewhat lower than last year.

China and Hong Kong show a different picture. Shipments to the US are about 8% below last year’s levels, but the market has been relatively stable in recent weeks. To Europe, tonnages are up by about 8% year on year.

Worldwide, air cargo traffic rose by 2% in early September, driven by rebounds out of North America and Asia Pacific. That growth has helped balance softer flows from the Middle East and South Asia.

The data suggests the tariff change is having its most visible impact on India-to-US trade, with knock-on effects in nearby markets. Europe-bound flows remain more stable, underlining the different regional dynamics at play.