Indian rupee, stocks hold firm as tensions rise over Pahalgam

Dubai: The Indian rupee and stock markets have managed to hold the line in the last 38 hours even as political tensions escalate over the brutal killing of tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir.

The Indian rupee is sticking to 23.1 levels against the dirham, which is more or less the same level since April 17. "It was expected that some softening of the INR would happen - but so far, there is no trace of that," said an FX analyst.

As for Indian stock markets, foreign institutional investor inflows have ‘actually strengthened’, according to market analysts during the period.

FII fund movement trends are hyper-critical for emerging markets such as India, especially at times of intense crisis, whether over the economy or otherwise.    

FII were net buyers with net inflows at Rs82.51 billion - this is the 'highest in seven consecutive days of net positive FII inflows'.

Currently, the benchmark BSE index is just over 80,000, from a 0.28% gain. (The BSE’s 52-week high is 85,978, while the low is 70,234.)

“The renewed tensions after Pahalgam have failed to deter the buoyancy that has returned to Indian stocks after the initial jitters at the beginning of this month over US tariffs,” said Milan Vaishnav, founder and Technical Analyst at ChartWizard.ae.  

“From the low of 21,743 formed on April 7, the Nifty has rebounded by nearly 2,500 points. It is currently consolidating without showing any signs of a major retracement.”

“There are no signs of a let-up even with the latest tensions. We believe Indian equities are likely to relatively outperform their global peers, but with some corrective movements.”

The BSE is up 2.1% in the year to date.

Indian expats in the UAE and Gulf have also have sizable presence in Indian stocks through mutual funds and other investment plans.

So far, mutual funds have been net sellers, but with relatively small amounts. On Thursday (April 24), the net outflow was Rs5.35 billion, which is rated marginal.

There is 'continued buying interest from foreign institutional investors, and optimism surrounding a potential India-US trade deal after the US Treasury Secretary said that India can be first to sign a trade deal," said Vikas Jain, Head of Research at Reliance Securities.

"FIIs have been net buyers for seven consecutive sessions—their longest streak since December 2023—injecting nearly Rs300 billion into the market during this period.

"This consistent inflow, along with encouraging rollover data for the May F&O (futures and options) series and expectations of an earlier-than-anticipated US Fed rate cut is likely to lift market sentiment further..."