2025 forecasts for aluminium will reflect 'global trade tensions' over US tariffs
Dubai: One of the world's biggest manufacturers in its category, Emirates Global Aluminium recorded net profits of Dh2.6 billion for 2024, from Dh3.4 billion a year ago.
The company confirmed it will maintain dividends at Dh3.7 billion ($1 billion) for a second consecutive year.
When it comes to the adjusted EBITDA, the UAE entity turned in a higher number for 2024, of Dh9.2 billion, up from Dh7.7 billion helper by higher realised all-in aluminium and bauxite prices and record production of alumina and aluminium. (This was to an extent offset by higher alumina prices and lower bauxite production.)
The EGA 2024 results come just as the global aluminium industry is trying to come to terms with the US hiking tariffs on the commodity's imports into the country.
The 'volatility' in aluminium prices is expected to continue due to 'tensions in global trade', while 'the global balance for aluminium is expected to be a 0.5 million tonnes deficit in 2025'.
This will be 'supporting prices going forward'.
The alumina markets are expected to normalise as more capacity is expected to come online in 2025, says EGA. The benchmark London Metal Exchange aluminium price was higher in 2024 - $2,392 vs $2,264 the year before. Geopolitical tensions exerted their influence on price movements, and so did energy price fluctuations, as well as speculation on interest rate cuts.
The UAE manufacturer has over the recent past expanded its direct interests in the US market through buying 80% in Spectro Alloys in Minnesota.
"With acquisitions in Germany and the United States, and progress developing the UAE’s largest recycling plant, by the end of 2024 we had 140,000 tonnes of secondary production capacity on an annualised basis, with a further 225,000 tonnes of secondary capacity under construction,” said Abdulnasser Bin Kalban, CEO of EGA.
Spectro Alloys produced 25,400 tonnes of secondary aluminium from the EGA acquisition in September to year-end. It is adding 55,000 tonnes of annual secondary billet capacity in the first phase.
EGA is building what will be 'the UAE’s largest aluminium recycling facility', in Al Taweelah, with a production capacity of 170,000 tonnes of secondary billet per year. Construction completion is currently 37%, with the first hot metal expected during H1-2026.
That depends on the region.
"Regional premiums were volatile in 2024, and on average were higher than 2023 in Japan and in Europe, and lower in the US," says EGA.
"Alumina prices were also higher, on operational issues in Australia and India and supply constraints in the bauxite market including from EGA’s Guinea Alumina Corporation."
Sign up for the Daily Briefing
Get the latest news and updates straight to your inbox