UAE petrol price prediction: Will costs fall in May?

Dubai: With the UAE set to announce petrol and diesel prices for May 2025 in the coming days, residents who are routinely keeping an eye out for updates will track any hikes or dips in retail costs in order to determine how to budget for them.

In April, Super 98 petrol costs Dh2.57 a litre, compared to Dh2.73 a litre last month, while Special 95 costs Dh2.46 a litre, compared to Dh2.61 a litre in March. With regard to E-Plus 91 petrol, the cost was determined to Dh2.38 a litre, compared to Dh2.54 a litre in March, while diesel costs Dh2.63 a litre, compared to Dh2.77 a litre last month. But how are prices expected to fare next month?

Since the UAE deregulated fuel prices in 2015, monthly price adjustments have aligned with global oil trends. The latest revisions are expected soon.

What is seen driving May fuel prices?

Oil prices are last seen extending declines as the global trade war hurt the outlook for demand, with economic data pointing to signs of strain and China stepping up its pushback against the Trump administration's tariffs.

Brent fell toward $65 a barrel, down for a second day, with West Texas Intermediate below $62. A widely-referenced gauge of US manufacturing weakened significantly, adding to signs of the drag from President Donald Trump's levies.

Even though oil prices went down in April, signs show the market is still tight and could stay that way for now. One key sign is that the current oil contract (for June) is more expensive than the next one (for July), which usually means demand is strong right now. This pricing gap is the biggest it’s been in almost three months.

Will prices drop further next month?

With the UAE set to announce its retail fuel prices on the last day of April, all eyes are on how global oil markets have performed in recent weeks. While April saw a drop in international oil prices, underlying indicators suggest the market is still tight, with strong near-term demand.

One key signal is that the price for oil to be delivered in June is higher than for July — a pattern known as backwardation — which often points to current supply concerns. That pricing gap is now at its widest in nearly three months, hinting that the recent dip in prices may not last long.

Given this backdrop, and the UAE’s practice of aligning monthly fuel prices with average global trends, May’s rates are likely to reflect both the recent softening and the signs of market strength ahead. This could mean a smaller cut compared to April — or possibly stable prices — depending on how oil fares in the final trading days of the month.

In short, motorists in the UAE can expect either flat rates or a modest drop for May, but a sharp fall is unlikely unless global oil weakens further just before the announcement.