Oil price eases, WTI trades in the low $90s, Hormuz risk keeps the market on a hair trigger
Calmer screens mask thin flows through Hormuz and a market primed for shocks
Oil prices slipped Thursday in Asian trading, but the pullback looked more like a pause than a fundamental shift in direction.
Brent eased toward the $95 level, WTI traded around $90.63 at 9:38 am in Tokyo (April 16,2026), and Murban was flat at $100.85 as traders weighed fragile cease-fire hopes, a still-tense Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of another round of US-Iran talks.
The move came even as the broader setup remained tight, while the warring parties have agreed to give diplomacy another shot.
Reuters reported that shipping traffic through Hormuz had fallen to well below normal levels as Iran kept pressure on vessels to stay close to its waters, while the US military said it was “setting conditions” to clear mines and secure the waterway.
Oil had surged earlier this week following the failed initial US-Iran talks in Islamabad, and the announcement of a US naval blockade to which Tehran responded with threats to shut the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea, before easing as markets began to price in diplomacy again.
Multiple levers
Washington, meanwhile, is using multiple levers at once: military pressure through the blockade, diplomatic outreach to allies, and the possibility of strategic reserve releases or sanctions relief that could put more barrels back into the market.
That mix has helped cool the immediate spike in prices, but it has not changed the underlying supply risk.
For now, the market looks calmer only on the surface.
Physical oil movement through Hormuz remains marginal, removing market-bending capacity.
Any prolonged restriction in the strategic strait would keep a floor under prices and leave the market one shock away from another surge, which.
Supply disruption
Brent crude began to spike following military action in the region.
In March, prices sharply increased due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a massive supply disruption of around 10.1 million barrels per day.
On April 7, 2026, Brent crude was approximately $107.13/barrel, while WTI was $110.34/barrel.
As of mid-April 2026, prices fell back to roughly $94 per barrel (Brent) on (April 15–16) due to potential diplomatic breakthroughs, including US-Iran peace talks, with WTI dropping to $90.63 on Thursday.
Gasoline prices increased by over 50% and diesel by about 78% following the crisis, with retail petroleum prices in the Philippines reaching record highs as of the second week of April 2026.
