India’s airline sector faces a harsh reality check after years of rapid growth

Mumbai: One year ago, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the airline sector as a symbol of a rising India poised to "soar to great heights".

Today, that optimism is facing a harsh reality check.

A series of crises at India's two main carriers, Air India and IndiGo, has exposed safety and regulatory shortcomings in the world's third-largest domestic aviation market.

The turmoil has been compounded by geopolitical shocks that have squeezed profits and forced airlines to reassess expansion plans.

The setbacks have highlighted the lack of competition, with Air India and IndiGo together accounting for nine out of 10 domestic airline seats.

"The last two years, 2025 and 2026, have been the darkest years for India in terms of its global reputation and credibility," said Mark Martin of Martin Consulting.

The latest blow came earlier this month when an Air India flight from Thailand's Phuket to New Delhi plunged 300 feet (91 metres) midair, injuring 24 passengers.

The incident sparked scrutiny after reports that the captain tested positive for marijuana upon landing, prompting Air India to order a one-time drug screening of all pilots.

Initial findings from an investigation are expected in the coming weeks.

For many observers, the episode is part of a broader pattern that has kept Air India under the spotlight since last year's crash of a London-bound Boeing 787 Dreamliner that killed 241 people.

An unrelated audit of Air India identified around 100 safety lapses, including seven violations requiring "urgent corrective action" and "recurrent training gaps" for Boeing 787 and 777 pilots, according to a parliamentary panel report.

The safety culture at Air India is "lax", said Shakti Lumba, a former airline operations chief.

"At present, everyone is paying lip service to safety. By paying lip service, you do not create a safety culture," he told AFP.

Former Air India executive director Jitender Bhargava said the reported drug case raised questions about management oversight, arguing the pilot community would know if a colleague was taking drugs.

Air India and IndiGo did not immediately respond to AFP's request for comment.

The safety concerns come as airlines grapple with mounting financial pressures.

Indian carriers have faced the closure of Pakistani airspace since tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad escalated last year, forcing longer and costlier routes.

Rising jet fuel prices linked to the Middle East war have added to the strain.

Ratings agency ICRA estimated Indian airlines will lose nearly $4 billion this fiscal year.

Air India's losses more than doubled to $2.3 billion in the last fiscal year, while IndiGo has reported losses for two consecutive quarters.

The strain is also affecting expansion plans.

IndiGo last month shut down its wide-body operations, while Air India is reportedly considering delaying deliveries of as many as 500 aircraft.

The turbulence marks a reversal for a sector often celebrated as one of India's biggest success stories.

Indian airlines carried about 167 million passengers last year, more than double the figure a decade earlier.

More than 70 airports have been added over the past decade, while carriers have ordered some 1,500 aircraft.

"The problem has not been a lack of growth," said Harsh Vardhan, chairman of Starair Consulting.

"It is that every other part of the ecosystem has not been able to keep up with this growth and manage it well."

Those concerns came to the fore last year when IndiGo cancelled large numbers of flights after failing to prepare for new pilot fatigue regulations.

Industry experts said the temporary suspension of parts of the new rest rules reflected a wider regulatory failure.

"The DGCA acts more like a facilitator than a regulator," said Lumba, the former operations chief, referring to the aviation regulatory body.

The dominance of Air India and IndiGo has further complicated the regulator's task.

Seven major airlines have either collapsed or been sold in the past two decades, making it harder to penalise the two big remaining players.

"A duopoly works only if operators are mature, responsible and grown adults," Martin said, adding that in India it more closely resembles a "bunch of territorial gangs".

Last year, the government said the country needed "five big airlines", and regulators have since approved plans for two new carriers.

The government is also examining a proposal to relax rules preventing airport operators from owning airlines, potentially opening the door for conglomerates such as the Adani Group.

But attracting investors alone will not solve the sector's problems, Vardhan said.

"The cost structure has always been very hostile. It is one of the primary reasons new operators have not been able to make a breakthrough."

The contradiction, he argued, lies at the heart of India's aviation ambitions.

"On one hand, they call it a sunshine sector. On the other, everyone is trying to ride the industry's success at the cost of profitability."