Dubai: Travelers from the UAE – or those transiting – could be paying more on their airfares after the latest escalation in Middle East tensions and specifically, restrictions imposed on overland flights in some parts of the region.
These will then impact ticket prices on trips to destinations within the region and even further, to Europe.
While overall airfares typically remain low during October and November, being the off-peak season for travel, some routes have seen ‘surge pricing’ as demand shifts to safer destinations. This in turn drives up costs for any last-minute travel plans.
The latest incidents unfolding in the region has led UAE travelers to delay or cancel all non-essential trips to Jordan, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Israel and Egypt for both leisure and business purposes.
Ahmed Soliman, Group Managing Director of TCA Group, said, “This turbulence is damaging fliers’ trust and confidence, especially as certain air travel corridors become unavailable.
"While the GCC has been largely insulated from the effects of the war, travel demand to several Middle Eastern countries has dropped considerably.
“Instead, UAE residents are opting to travel to short-haul destinations in the Indian Ocean for any leisure trips."
Airfares are clearly edging higher
Rates on Dubai-Beirut flights have skyrocketed even for a one-way Economy tickets, as Lebanese expatriates evacuate their families from areas where fighting has intensified.
“Given that most UAE carriers have cancelled flights to Lebanon until October 8, a destination popular for VFR (visiting friends and relatives) traffic and tourists, travel demand to Beirut has dropped drastically,” said Basheer Mohammed of Europe Travel and Tours.
One-way fares from Beirut to Dubai after October 8 are averaging Dh3,070 (Air Arabia) to Dh4,610 (on multiple flights), which are at least 75-80 per cent higher than usual off-peak fares of Dh726-Dh1,420.
“Since last week, intensified Israeli air strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon created a surge in people desperate to leave the increasingly dangerous areas,” said Mohammed. “Since Lebanon’s own Middle East Airlines is the only airline operating in Beirut, these are fully booked until October 11-13.”
Moreover, due to the unpredictable nature of the ongoing regional crises, travel agents are still unable to determine when the situation will stabilise.
Travel trends to Egypt, Jordan
Along with Lebanon, travel demand to Jordan and Egypt has also dropped by 35 to 70 per cent, according to data from ForwardKeys, a travel intelligence platform. Return UAE to Cairo fares average from Dh1,187 (Air Arabia) to Dh1,494 (EgyptAir). These fares had stabilised post-Summer and are expected to remain so until the end of December.
Egypt’s Ministry of Tourism said 2023 was its busiest yet, with an unprecedented 14.9 million tourists, a 33 per cent increase from 2019. The Ministry aims to increase it by 30 per cent further this year.
Since the beginning of the Israel-Gaza war in October 2023, Egypt had 8 million foreign visitors until May this year, Ghada Shalaby, Egypt’s Vice-Minister for Tourism said. In the first quarter of this year, Egypt recorded a 3.3 per cent increase in foreign visitors compared to the previous year, according to official data.
“From the UAE, outbound demand to Egypt and Tukey are among the highest,” said Ghassan Al-Khatib of Ember Lifestyle.
On the other hand, Iraq has seen a resurgence in travel demand after it launched visa-free entry to eight countries, including Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Iran, on the other hand, opened its airspace three days after the latest missile attacks on Israel. Iran’s airspace garners considerable traffic and is a key route for most international flights. Therefore shutting it down created chaos as flights diverted ‘anywhere they could’.
“Leisure traffic to Iran has been slow since April this year,” said Mohammed. “From the UAE, we are seeing only VFR traffic. Business and leisure traffic has been relatively low.”
Where are UAE residents travelling to?
According to Khatib, the top destinations for UAE and Saudi travelers remain Europe, the Indian Ocean, and the Americas.
“These areas are expected to see more activity soon,” he said. “Europe still performs well for us, and business travel to the US remains steady. Demand for Turkey will likely pick up again soon, while traffic to Egypt has stayed consistent.
“As of yesterday (October 3), outbound travel from Saudi Arabia and the UAE to London hasn’t been affected either.”
Khatib said that fares to always popular destinations like the Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius, Turkey, and Egypt are holding steady, though prices are higher due to limited options.
However, Turkey and Egypt airfares remain competitively priced.
“Saudi carriers are offering some incredible deals, and with Riyadh Air joining the market soon, fares should become even more affordable,” said Khatib. “This is great news for consumers, as increased competition will keep driving prices down, making travelers happy.”
